Brentford's Set-Piece Empire Is Built on Sand

Brentford have been lauded as the Premier League's great overachievers, but their tactical model is fundamentally unsustainable. The reliance on set-pieces and direct play masks a midfield that cannot control games, and it will be their undoing this season.

A Model of Efficiency or a House of Cards?

Since promotion in 2021, Brentford have defied expectations with a pragmatic approach built on set-pieces, long throws, and rapid transitions. In the 2022-23 season, they scored 15 set-piece goals—the most in the league—and finished ninth. But that success was underpinned by the midfield duo of Christian Nørgaard and Vitaly Janelt, who provided energy and bite. Both have since declined physically, and the replacements lack the same intensity.

Consider the numbers: last season, Brentford conceded the third-most shots from open play in the Premier League (per Opta), and their expected goals against (xGA) from open play was 1.6 per game—worse than relegated Southampton. Their defensive solidity at set-pieces (they faced the fewest set-piece shots) papered over the cracks. This season, opponents have started to exploit the gap between defence and midfield, as seen in their 3-1 defeat to Everton, where Abdoulaye Doucouré repeatedly ran unchallenged through the middle.

The Midfield Void: A Tactical Autopsy

Thomas Frank's 4-3-3 relies on the midfield three to screen the back four and launch quick counters, but the personnel no longer fit the system. Nørgaard, once a destroyer, now struggles to cover ground; his tackle success rate has dropped from 68% in 2022-23 to 52% this season. Janelt, similarly, has seen his interceptions per 90 fall from 2.1 to 1.3. The arrivals of Mikkel Damsgaard and Mathias Jensen have added creativity but not steel. As a result, Brentford are caught in transitions, forcing their centre-backs to step out and leaving gaps for opponents to exploit.

  • Set-piece dependency: Brentford have scored 42% of their goals from set-pieces since 2021—the highest proportion in the league. When those dry up, they have no Plan B.
  • Open-play impotence: They average just 0.9 non-set-piece goals per game, the fourth-lowest in the division, and their shot conversion from open play is a dismal 8.7%.
  • Defensive frailty: They have conceded 14 goals from open play in their last 10 matches, the most in the league, with midfielders failing to track runners.

The system is not broken; it is outdated. The Premier League has evolved; teams now press higher and exploit central spaces. Brentford's midfield cannot cope with the intensity, and Frank's refusal to adapt—he has used the same 4-3-3 in 85% of matches—makes them predictable. Contrast this with Brighton, who transitioned from a similar model to a possession-based one under Roberto De Zerbi, or Aston Villa, who built a midfield that controls games. Brentford have stood still.

But They Overachieved Before—Why Not Again?

The counter-argument is that Brentford have consistently defied the odds, and their data-driven recruitment will find solutions. They point to the signing of Igor Thiago, a striker with a knack for pressing, and the return of Rico Henry, whose pace aids transitions. However, Thiago is not a midfielder, and Henry's injury record is poor. More importantly, the underlying numbers have been worsening for two seasons: their points tally has fallen from 59 in 2022-23 to 46 in 2023-24, and their expected points (xP) this season is 1.1 per game—relegation form. The set-piece coach, Bernardo Cueva, left for Chelsea in 2024, and his replacement has not replicated the same output. The model is failing.

Frank's loyalty to his system is admirable, but it is also his weakness. The Premier League is unforgiving, and teams that fail to evolve are punished. Leeds United in 2022, Sheffield United in 2021—both had distinct styles that worked until they didn't. Brentford are on the same trajectory.

Verdict: Relegation by May

Brentford will be relegated in the 2026-27 season. Their midfield will be overrun consistently, and their set-piece goals will dry up as opponents adapt. By Christmas, they will be in the bottom three, and Frank will be sacked by February. The data is clear: they are a Championship side in a Premier League mask. This prediction is falsifiable: if Brentford survive, I will publicly retract and analyse where I went wrong. But the numbers don't lie—and neither does the tactical tape.

Filed under: Tactical Analysis | LA Premier League Home