Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction: Set-Piece Fears, 2-1 Score

Brentford vs Chelsea prediction: Jones Knows tips 2-1 as Chelsea's set-piece softness exposed

Brentford host Chelsea on Friday at 8pm live on Sky Sports, and tipster Lewis Jones — aka Jones Knows — predicts a 2-1 home win. Chelsea have conceded 0.5 goals per game from set pieces since the start of last season, the second-most of any ever-present Premier League side, making the Bees' physicality the key threat.

Fixture: Brentford vs Chelsea, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Score prediction: Brentford 2-1 Chelsea (Jones Knows)
Key betting angle: Brentford at Evens in the draw no bet market
Set-piece record: Chelsea concede 0.5 goals per game from set plays; Brentford average 0.73 xG from set pieces across the past three meetings
Weekend's other best bets: Under 2.5 goals in Tottenham vs Aston Villa (10/11); Leif Davis +1 shot on target (100/30); James McAtee to be carded (13/2)
Other score predictions: Tottenham 1-1 Aston Villa; Brighton 1-1 Arsenal; Everton 2-1 Ipswich; Newcastle 1-2 Hull; Nottingham Forest 2-0 Coventry; Bournemouth 2-1 Liverpool; Leeds vs Crystal Palace — first-half analysis only in source

The numbers

Chelsea have conceded the second most goals from set pieces in the Premier League since the start of last season, at 0.5 per game, among the 17 ever-present top-flight teams.
Brentford have amassed a per-game average of 0.73 expected goals from set pieces across the past three meetings with Chelsea.
Tottenham have scored zero goals in four Premier League matches, with just 0.95 expected goals per game.
Roberto De Zerbi's teams averaged 1.92 goals scored per game at Brighton and Marseille, but his Spurs side average just 0.73 per game.
Aston Villa have scored just one goal this season in the Premier League.
Brighton's Fabian Hurzeler has yet to beat Mikel Arteta in five meetings, but Brighton have won four of the five expected goals battles.
Bukayo Saka has drawn 13 fouls in three Premier League games, with three leading to an opponent booking.
Olivier Boscagli is 5/4 to make two or more fouls and 4/1 to be carded; he has two previous cards in two games against Arsenal.
Leif Davis has two goals and an assist in the opening four Premier League games, and including pre-season has scored four times in his last seven games. He is 100/30 for +1 shot on target.
James McAtee has made seven fouls in his last two games, picking up a yellow card in both, and is 13/2 to be carded again.
Teams conceding four or more goals in a Premier League game (excluding matches against Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool) have recorded just one win from the last 15, alongside five draws and nine defeats. Hull or draw is 11/8.
Leeds have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League matches dating back to March, winning six and drawing six — the fewest defeats of any side in that period.
Bournemouth are 19/10 to beat Liverpool. Brighton's double chance is 11/10; an Arsenal away win is 7/10.

Why Brentford can expose Chelsea's soft centre

Chelsea have been vulnerable to exactly the sort of physical, second-ball and set-piece football Brentford specialise in. There is a softness about them which was exposed by Hull City, who scored from a corner when Emi Martinez failed to deal cleanly with a delivery. Brentford will be licking their lips and getting their knives and forks ready for a set-piece feast.

The set-piece numbers back the eye test. Chelsea concede 0.5 goals per game from dead balls since the start of last season — the second most of the 17 ever-present Premier League teams. Brentford, meanwhile, have hit them via this method in previous fixtures, amassing 0.73 expected goals from set pieces per game across the past three meetings. Chelsea look there for the taking with Brentford on offer at Evens in the draw no bet market.

Tottenham vs Aston Villa: low-scoring evidence piles up

Tottenham's problems in front of goal are well documented — zero scored in four Premier League matches to a backdrop of just 0.95 expected goals per game. Roberto De Zerbi's teams averaged 1.92 goals scored per game at Brighton and Marseille, so to average just 0.73 per game since taking the Spurs job showcases a worrying trait for the environment at the club. There seems a mental block holding the football club back.

Aston Villa have scored just one goal themselves this season in the Premier League. Both teams have genuine attacking-process problems, but for different reasons. Tottenham have possession and territory without enough penetration, while Aston Villa are struggling to generate much shot volume at all. Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet looks too good to turn down.

Brighton vs Arsenal: Boscagli and Saka the duel to watch

Fabian Hurzeler has yet to taste victory over Mikel Arteta across five meetings, but his Brighton team have certainly bloodied the nose of the champions. In games that have produced plenty of needle — even between the managers — Brighton have won four of the five expected goals battles, which points towards a tricky encounter for Arsenal despite their perfect start to the season.

Jones Knows would be wary of taking the 7/10 with Sky Bet for an away win, with the double chance for Brighton at 11/10 much more appealing. Olivier Boscagli should be lining up against Bukayo Saka, who looks back to his dangerous best with the ball. The winger has drawn 13 fouls in three Premier League games, with three of those fouls leading to a booking for the opponent. Boscagli is 5/4 with Sky Bet to make two or more fouls and is 4/1 to be carded — a price given further edge by his two previous cards in two games with Arsenal.

Everton vs Ipswich, Newcastle vs Hull, Forest vs Coventry

Leif Davis is playing a role that makes him far more than your traditional left-back. He is getting extremely advanced for Ipswich, constantly pushing into the final third and becoming a genuine attacking outlet. His two goals and an assist in the opening four Premier League games underline just how involved he is. Including pre-season, Davis has scored four times in his last seven games — some output from a player starting from left-back. The 100/30 with Sky Bet for +1 shot on target feels big for a player whose positioning means he is regularly getting himself into attacking areas.

There is something about a team getting absolutely battered that makes opposing them in their next game interesting. It is not just the physical exertion of chasing shadows for 90 minutes — there is a psychological hangover that can linger. Newcastle were 4-0 down at Leeds before eventually losing 4-1, with Matthias Jaissle admitting afterwards that the result was difficult to digest and that his young side could not match Leeds' physicality. Teams conceding four or more goals in a Premier League game, excluding matches against Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool, have a horrible record in their next game: just one win from the last 15, alongside five draws and nine defeats. That makes Hull or draw at 11/8 with Sky Bet interesting.

James McAtee is a fantastic bet to be carded. A player in a Premier League midfield — the most physical and duel-heavy major league in Europe — who has made seven fouls in his last two games, picking up a yellow card in both, should not be 13/2 with Sky Bet to be carded again. It is a classic case of a positional change not being factored into the market yet, as McAtee is doing a fine job of replacing Elliott Anderson's hustle and bustle in the Nottingham Forest midfield. Big price.

Bournemouth vs Liverpool: the returning manager angle

Narrative is always worth listening to in football betting. Andoni Iraola returning to Bournemouth with Liverpool feels like one of those occasions where the emotional temperature at the Vitality Stadium could be turned up a few degrees. Iraola spent three seasons on the south coast, taking Bournemouth to their highest-ever Premier League finish before moving to Anfield this summer. He returns on Sunday for the first time.

There are some interesting historical parallels. Managers returning to former clubs for the first time can find the occasion awkward. David Moyes lost at Everton with Manchester United, Graham Potter lost at Brighton with Chelsea, while Thomas Frank drew at Brentford with Tottenham, Brendan Rodgers drew at Swansea with Liverpool and Mauricio Pochettino drew at Southampton with Tottenham. These results highlight the unusual dynamics of these fixtures. The home crowd knows the manager, the players know the manager and there is an extra edge to the occasion. Bournemouth are 19/10 with Sky Bet for the win.

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace: why Leeds are worth backing

Betting on Leeds when the price is right is a wise strategy, because more often than not, you know exactly what you're getting: organisation, aggression, a threat from set pieces and a team where everyone looks comfortable playing the same way. And they simply don't lose many games. Leeds have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League matches dating back to March, winning six and drawing six — the fewest defeats of any side in the division over that period. Their latest performance was another reminder of the formula, dismantling Newcastle 4-1 at Elland Road.

Talking points

Is Chelsea's set-piece weakness a personnel problem or a coaching problem? At 0.5 goals conceded per game, Brentford's physicality will test that question immediately.
Tottenham's 0.73 goals per game under De Zerbi is a huge drop from his 1.92 average at Brighton and Marseille — is the problem the manager or the environment?
Brighton have won four of five expected goals battles against Arsenal. Does that make the 11/10 double chance the value bet, or do results matter more?
Newcastle's psychological hangover after the 4-1 Leeds defeat is a real angle — one win in 15 for battered teams suggests Hull or draw at 11/8 is the smart play.

What happens next

Brentford vs Chelsea kicks off Friday at 8pm live on Sky Sports. Tottenham vs Aston Villa follows at 12.30pm on Saturday, with Brighton vs Arsenal, Everton vs Ipswich and Newcastle vs Hull all at 3pm. Nottingham Forest vs Coventry is at 5.30pm on Saturday, also live on Sky Sports. Bournemouth vs Liverpool and Leeds United vs Crystal Palace close the weekend on Sunday at 2pm, with both live on Sky Sports.

Frequently asked questions

What is the predicted score for Brentford vs Chelsea?

Jones Knows predicts Brentford 2-1 Chelsea, with Brentford on offer at Evens in the draw no bet market.

Which matches are live on Sky Sports this weekend?

Brentford vs Chelsea (Friday 8pm), Nottingham Forest vs Coventry (Saturday 5.30pm), Bournemouth vs Liverpool (Sunday 2pm) and Leeds United vs Crystal Palace (Sunday 2pm) are all live on Sky Sports.

Who is Jones Knows' best bet for the weekend?

His best bets are Under 2.5 goals in Tottenham vs Aston Villa at 10/11, Leif Davis +1 shot on target at 100/30 and James McAtee to be carded at 13/2, all with Sky Bet.