Premier League table after five games: What it means for Arsenal, Man City, Tottenham

Premier League table after five games: Tottenham bottom, Man City top, but history warns against early conclusions

Just five matches into the season, the Premier League table is more settled than most fans realise. Manchester City lead with five wins from five, while Tottenham sit bottom. But recent history shows the title is rarely decided this early, and the bottom club often escapes.

Competition: Premier League 2025-26
Current leaders: Manchester City (five wins from five)
Bottom club: Tottenham, after finishing one place above the drop in each of the last two campaigns
Key statistic: 13 of 20 teams (65%) finished within four places of their position after five games last season
Big asterisk: Manchester City found guilty of majority of Premier League charges – appeal ongoing, sanctions could reshape table

The numbers

Last season, 13 of 20 sides (65%) finished within four places of where they sat after five games.
Over the last 10 seasons, 138 out of 200 teams (69%) finished within four places of their five-game position.
27 teams sat in exactly the same position 33 games later.
Only 12 teams in the last decade moved up or down by double digits after this point; three of those came last season.
The side leading after five games has won the title in just one of the last six seasons (Man City in 2023-24) and only three times in the last 11 seasons.
Man City also won their first five games in 2015-16 under Manuel Pellegrini and in 2016-17 under Pep Guardiola, but did not win the title on either occasion.
Chelsea in 2018-19, Arsenal in 2022-23 and Liverpool last season were all top with a 100% record at this stage but ended without the trophy.
The eventual champions have been in the top two after five games in each of the last four campaigns.
The last team outside the top two after five games to win the title was Man City in 2021-22, who were fifth with 10 points.
The top eight after five games in 2024-25 finished as the top eight that season (not in the same order). The top six in 2019-20 and top seven in 2016-17 were also already in place.
The bottom club after five games has been relegated in six of the last seven seasons.
Between 2013-14 and 2018-19, only one of six bottom sides after five games went down (Newcastle in 2015-16); Crystal Palace finished 11th in 2017-18.
At least one of the bottom three after five games has been relegated in each of the last eight seasons.
The three sides relegated in each of the last three seasons were all in the bottom six after five games.
The last teams outside the bottom six after five games to be relegated were Leeds and Southampton in 2022-23, who were 7th and 9th respectively.

Why the table is already taking shape – but the title race is not

The data is clear: across the last decade, almost 70% of teams end within four places of their five-game position. The top eight last season finished as the top eight, just in a different order. The top six in 2019-20 and top seven in 2016-17 were similarly locked in early. That means Brentford’s current European push, Hull’s survival hopes and Tottenham’s relegation battle are all more plausible than they sound.

Yet the top spot is the great exception. Only one of the last six five-game leaders went on to win the title – Manchester City in 2023-24. City’s perfect start under Pep Guardiola mirrors 2015-16 and 2016-17, when they also won five from five but missed out. Chelsea (2018-19), Arsenal (2022-23) and Liverpool (last season) all had 100% records after five games and finished empty-handed. The eventual champions have been in the top two at this stage for four straight years, pointing to City or Arsenal – assuming no points deduction.

At the bottom, the picture is grimmer. The side bottom after five games has gone down in six of the last seven seasons. Tottenham, who finished one place above the drop in each of the last two campaigns, are already in trouble. But there is hope: in 2008-09, Spurs were bottom with two points after five games, replaced Juande Ramos with Harry Redknapp three games later, and still finished eighth. Tottenham fans will cling to that precedent.

The relegation battle may already be a closed shop. At least one of the current bottom three – Tottenham, Fulham and Coventry – has been relegated in each of the last eight seasons. The three sides that went down in each of the last three campaigns were all in the bottom six after five games. That would drag Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace into the fight. The last teams to be outside the bottom six after five games but still relegated were Leeds and Southampton in 2022-23, who sat 7th and 9th. Hull (8th) and Ipswich (11th) will pray history does not repeat.

And then there is the giant asterisk: Manchester City were found guilty of the majority of the Premier League charges levelled at them. The club have appealed. If the guilty verdict stands, potential sanctions could significantly alter the table. Until that is resolved, we can only analyse the standings as they are.

Talking points

Does Manchester City’s five-win start mean anything, given they also began 2015-16 and 2016-17 with five straight wins and failed to win the title?
Tottenham are bottom after five games – but they escaped relegation from the same position in 2008-09. Is this time different?
Only one of the last six five-game leaders has won the title. Does that make Arsenal a better bet than City, especially with the appeal looming?
If the bottom three after five games almost always produces at least one relegated side, are Fulham and Coventry already doomed?

What happens next

The Premier League table will shift after the next round of fixtures, but the bigger deadline is Manchester City’s appeal against their guilty verdict. Until that is resolved, the top-flight standings carry an asterisk. For Tottenham, the next game is a chance to climb out of the bottom three and avoid the fate that has befallen six of the last seven bottom clubs at this stage. For Arsenal and City, the focus is on staying in the top two – the only positions from which a champion has emerged in each of the last four seasons.

Frequently asked questions

Is it too early to look at the Premier League table after five games?

No – recent history shows the table is more settled than you think. Last season, 13 of 20 teams finished within four places of their position after five games, and over the last decade 138 of 200 teams did the same.

Has the team leading after five games gone on to win the Premier League?

Rarely. The five-game leader has won the title in just one of the last six seasons – Manchester City in 2023-24 – and only three times in the last 11 seasons.

Will Tottenham be relegated from the Premier League this season?

They are currently bottom, and the side bottom after five games has been relegated in six of the last seven seasons. However, in 2008-09 Tottenham were bottom with two points after five games and still finished eighth.