Leeds backed to heap more misery on Manchester United

Leeds United host Manchester United on Sunday at 2pm, live on Sky Sports, with tipster Lewis Jones — aka Jones Knows — backing the home side to win at 13/10 with Sky Bet. He also tips Pascal Gross to score for Brighton and both teams to score in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal.

Confirmed line-ups

No confirmed line-ups are included in the source article.

Injury and availability

  • William Saliba (Arsenal): Absent, with the source noting his absence is having a marginal impact on Arsenal's defensive numbers.

The numbers

  • Leeds' points since December 2025: 45 from 31 Premier League games – a tally bettered by only five teams.
  • Leeds' home points over the same period: 29 – only Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United have collected more.
  • Arsenal's expected goals against with Gabriel and Saliba paired: 0.65 per game; this season the figure has risen to 0.9.
  • Arsenal's recent defensive record: Five goals conceded across their last four Premier League games.
  • Nottingham Forest's expected goals: Averaging 1.88 per 90 minutes.
  • Tottenham's disciplinary trend: Since Roberto De Zerbi took charge, opposition teams have averaged 2.3 cards per 90 minutes against Spurs.
  • Savio's card-drawing rate: A card drawn every 154 minutes of Premier League action in his career.
  • Mohamed Kudus: Won 21 bookings off the opposition in his final season at West Ham – third for cards drawn per game among players with over 1,000 minutes.
  • Milan van Ewijk: Booked twice this season.
  • Bournemouth's recent goal average: 3.1 goals per game across their last 50 matches.

Why Leeds are the value bet against Manchester United

Leeds have collected 45 points from 31 Premier League games since the start of December 2025, a tally bettered by only five teams. Their home form is even more persuasive: 29 points on their own patch over the same period, with only Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United collecting more. At 13/10 with Sky Bet, Jones argues the odds-against price is too good to ignore.

The source describes the current Manchester United as fragile, disjointed and incapable of dealing with opponents who bring relentless intensity. Leeds will make it an uncomfortable afternoon at Elland Road, where the atmosphere turns home advantage into a decisive factor. Jones believes the market is giving United too much credit for their name and not enough weight to their current shortcomings.

Jones knows a thing or two about betting markets, and he points out that the noise surrounding Manchester United can become so deafening that it distorts the prices. The chaos at Old Trafford right now makes the odds-against price about a Leeds victory particularly appealing. He predicts a 2-0 win for the home side.

What was said

The source does not include direct quotes from players or managers, only the analysis of Jones Knows.

Pascal Gross the standout player bet

Pascal Gross has been one of the Premier League's outstanding performers this season. He is the player who makes Brighton tick, and he carries a serious goal threat too. Four goals already this season underlines that point, and the fact he is on penalties adds another route to a goal. Jones notes the market anticipates a comfortable Brighton win with an expected goal output approaching three, so the 7/2 with Sky Bet about Gross finding the net feels large.

Gross has the technical quality to arrive in dangerous positions, the composure to finish chances and the added advantage of penalty-taking duties. In a fixture where Brighton are expected to create plenty, those qualities make him an appealing candidate to get on the scoresheet. Jones predicts a 3-0 Brighton win.

Both teams to score at Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

Arsenal remain one of the Premier League's elite defensive sides, but there are signs that the absence of William Saliba is having a marginal impact on their ability to shut teams out. With Gabriel and Saliba paired together, Arsenal have averaged just 0.65 expected goals against per game. This season, that figure has risen to 0.9. It is hardly a collapse in defensive standards, but it is a meaningful increase, and Arsenal have conceded five goals across their last four Premier League games.

Nottingham Forest are an interesting opponent in that regard. Their recent attacking performances have deserved more reward, with Forest averaging 1.88 expected goals per 90 minutes. That is a healthy level of chance creation and suggests their goal threat is stronger than their actual returns might indicate. At 10/11 with Sky Bet, both teams to score is the play. Jones predicts a 1-2 Arsenal win.

Tottenham's disciplinary angle and van Ewijk

There is a disciplinary angle worth following with Roberto De Zerbi's attacking approach creating the conditions for opponents to find themselves making fouls and being shown cards. Since De Zerbi took charge, opposition teams have averaged 2.3 cards per 90 minutes against Spurs. That is an interesting trend, particularly when you consider the type of wide players Tottenham have. Savio and Mohamed Kudus are dangerous one-vs-one operators who thrive on committing defenders.

Savio has drawn a card every 154 minutes of Premier League action in his career, while Kudus won 21 bookings off the opposition in his final season at West Ham, ranking third for cards drawn per game that campaign among all Premier League players to have played more than 1,000 minutes. Coventry full-back Milan van Ewijk is in the firing line. He has already been booked twice this season, giving some evidence that he is not immune to getting stuck in. At 7/2 with Sky Bet, the price offers an appealing return for a player who could be under sustained pressure. Jones predicts a 2-1 Tottenham win.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland: low-scoring draw on the cards

Bournemouth and Sunderland have managed just one win between them across their six matches this season. That sort of start can change the psychology of a football match. Confidence becomes fragile and avoiding defeat can feel more important than chasing victory. That makes under 2.5 goals at Evens an interesting proposition with Sky Bet. Bournemouth's historical goal numbers might tempt you towards another open, entertaining contest — across their last 50 matches, the average total has been 3.1 goals per game — but Jones would be wary of leaning too heavily on that data. After shipping five goals in a single game at Chelsea, it is only natural for a team to take stock and for defensive security to become the priority. The draw becomes an interesting possibility alongside a low-scoring game. Jones predicts a 1-1 draw.

Talking points

  • Leeds at 13/10 looks generous given their points tally since December 2025, but does the Old Trafford chaos narrative ignore United's individual quality?
  • Pascal Gross at 7/2 to score is the standout player bet, but Brighton's expected goals of nearly three might mean the value lies elsewhere.
  • Arsenal without Saliba concede more expected goals, but is Nottingham Forest's 1.88 xG per game enough to breach the league's best defence?
  • Milan van Ewijk at 7/2 to be carded looks a smart play given Tottenham's wide men, but can Coventry keep the game disciplined?

What happens next

The weekend's Premier League action gets underway with Bournemouth vs Sunderland on Sunday at 2pm, followed by Brighton vs Crystal Palace and Leeds vs Manchester United at the same time, then Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal at 4.30pm. Tottenham vs Coventry closes the round on Monday at 8pm. All matches are live on Sky Sports, and Jones Knows' best bets are already on the table.

Frequently asked questions

Who is Jones Knows tipping to win between Leeds and Manchester United?

Jones Knows is backing Leeds to beat Manchester United at 13/10 with Sky Bet, with a score prediction of 2-0 to Leeds.

What is the best bet for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?

Both teams to score at 10/11 with Sky Bet, with a score prediction of 1-2 to Arsenal.

Why is Pascal Gross a good bet to score against Crystal Palace?

Gross has four goals this season, takes penalties, and Brighton are expected to create plenty of chances, making 7/2 with Sky Bet appealing.

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