Leeds United vs Newcastle United: Jones Knows Prediction & Betting Tips

Leeds United host Newcastle United in Monday Night Football at 8pm, live on Sky Sports. Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, believes Leeds will inflict Matthias Jaissle's first defeat as Newcastle boss and has three best bets for the game.

  • Fixture: Leeds United vs Newcastle United
  • Kick-off: Monday, 8pm
  • Competition: Premier League, Monday Night Football
  • TV: Live on Sky Sports
  • Jones Knows' best bet: Ethan Ampadu to be carded (3/1 with Sky Bet)
  • Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Newcastle

The numbers

  • Newcastle have scored six goals from an expected goals return of just three.
  • Newcastle have faced the most shots of any team this season.
  • Leeds have avoided defeat in 11 of their last 12 Premier League games.
  • Leeds are 11/8 with Sky Bet to win.
  • Matias Fernandez-Pardo drew 15 cards in just over 3,000 minutes of Ligue 1 action last season.
  • Ethan Ampadu was booked 10 times last season.
  • Ethan Ampadu to be carded is priced at 3/1 with Sky Bet.

Why Jones Knows is backing Leeds to win

Newcastle's draw with Bournemouth was a reminder that this rebuild under Matthias Jaissle could be volatile. The Toon have scored six goals from an expected goals return of just three and have faced more shots than any other team this season, hinting at overperformance.

Leeds are a reliable team to bet on. Under Daniel Farke, they know exactly what they are going to get, and usually that means avoiding defeat. They have done that in 11 of their last 12 Premier League games, defending with great organisation and attacking with authority. At 11/8 with Sky Bet, Jones Knows likes the home win.

Card watch: Fernandez-Pardo and Ampadu

Jones Knows also sees value in Matias Fernandez-Pardo drawing cards for Newcastle. The £51m signing from Lille could be in line for his first start after coming off the bench in the last two games in all competitions. He was Lille's main man in Ligue 1 last season and drew 15 cards in just over 3,000 minutes of action — an impressive strike rate.

That leaves Ethan Ampadu vulnerable to a card at 3/1 with Sky Bet, based on his record of being booked 10 times last season. Ampadu's job in midfield will be to disrupt Fernandez-Pardo's runs, increasing the likelihood of a booking.

Jones Knows' best bets

  • Ethan Ampadu to be carded (3/1 with Sky Bet) — BEST BET
  • Vitaly Janelt to make +2 fouls (7/4 with Sky Bet)
  • First half under 1.5 goals & under 3.5 total goals in Chelsea vs Hull (Evens with Sky Bet)

Talking points

  • Can Leeds maintain their impressive unbeaten run? They have avoided defeat in 11 of their last 12 Premier League games.
  • Will Matthias Jaissle suffer his first defeat as Newcastle boss? Jones Knows thinks so.
  • Is Matias Fernandez-Pardo worth a start? His card-drawing record suggests he will be a target for opposition midfielders.
  • Should Ethan Ampadu be worried about his disciplinary record? He was booked 10 times last season.

What happens next

Leeds United vs Newcastle United kicks off at 8pm on Monday, live on Sky Sports. The result will shape both clubs' early-season momentum, with Leeds looking to extend their unbeaten run and Newcastle eager to avoid a first defeat under Jaissle.

Frequently asked questions

What time is Leeds vs Newcastle kick-off?

Leeds United vs Newcastle United kicks off at 8pm on Monday, live on Sky Sports.

Who is Jones Knows backing to win Leeds vs Newcastle?

Jones Knows likes the Leeds home win at 11/8 with Sky Bet and predicts a 2-1 scoreline.

Who is Jones Knows' best bet for Leeds vs Newcastle?

Ethan Ampadu to be carded at 3/1 with Sky Bet is Jones Knows' best bet.

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