Everton vs Chelsea Prediction: Tarkowski 14/1 Set-Piece Value

Everton vs Chelsea: Tarkowski 14/1 to punish Chelsea's set-piece weakness

Everton host Chelsea at Goodison Park on Saturday at 12.30pm, and the numbers point to James Tarkowski scoring from a set piece. Chelsea have conceded seven set-piece goals this season — more than any other Premier League side — making the defender a standout bet at 14/1 with Sky Bet.

Fixture: Everton vs Chelsea, Saturday 12.30pm, Goodison Park
Key stat: Chelsea have conceded 7 set-piece goals this season — the most in the Premier League
Best bet: James Tarkowski to score at 14/1 with Sky Bet
Score prediction: 2-2
Also tipped: Brentford double chance & under 3.5 goals vs Liverpool at 11/10

The numbers

Everton under David Moyes have built a clear identity around dead-ball situations, using their physicality and aerial presence to turn corners and free kicks into genuine scoring opportunities.
Chelsea have already conceded seven goals from set pieces this season — more than any other Premier League side.
Chelsea are conceding set-piece goals at a rate of 0.53 per 90 minutes since the start of last season, the highest ratio of any Premier League team over that period.
James Tarkowski leads Everton's defenders for touches in the opposition box and shots.
Tarkowski has scored three times across his last 15 games, including a goal against Bournemouth this season.
Liverpool have scored just six non-penalty Premier League goals, the sixth-fewest in the division.
Liverpool have manufactured only nine Opta-defined big chances, the joint-lowest total alongside Aston Villa and Coventry. Brighton, by comparison, have created 27.
Hull City have lost just one of their six Premier League matches this season, against Newcastle, and won the expected goals battle in that defeat.
Manchester City have overperformed their expected-goals numbers more than any team, with the expected-points model suggesting they should have collected around seven fewer points.
Sunderland generated 2.97 expected goals from 17 shots against City; Coventry managed 12 shots in their 1-0 defeat at the Etihad.
Newcastle have conceded 36 goals and kept just two clean sheets across 20 home matches in all competitions this calendar year. If they concede against Aston Villa, they will set a new club record for consecutive home games without a clean sheet (16).
Bournemouth and Sunderland have managed just one win between them across their six matches this season.
Across Bournemouth's last 50 matches, the average total has been 3.1 goals per game.

Why Tarkowski is the value play at Goodison Park

Everton under David Moyes have built a clear identity around dead-ball situations, using their physicality and aerial presence to turn corners and free kicks into genuine scoring opportunities. James Tarkowski is the chief weapon in that department, leading the club's defenders for touches in the opposition box and shots.

Chelsea's record in this area is poor and it is not a short-term problem. They are conceding set-piece goals at a rate of 0.53 per 90 minutes since the start of last season — the highest ratio of any Premier League team over that period. At 14/1 with Sky Bet, the price is big enough to tempt.

Expect Everton to load the box at every corner and wide free kick, with Tarkowski attacking the six-yard area. Chelsea's zonal marking has been exposed repeatedly, and the Toffees' direct approach will test it again. Jones Knows predicts a 2-2 draw.

Brentford vs Liverpool: Bees double chance and under 3.5 goals at 11/10

Andoni Iraola has a miserable record against Brentford, going seven meetings without a win and losing five of them. Brentford's direct approach has repeatedly caused problems for his footballing philosophy, finding ways to bypass the press and turn matches into the sort of physical, second-ball contests that can leave his teams exposed.

Of course, Iraola now has a higher calibre of player at his disposal than he did at Bournemouth. But better players do not automatically solve tactical problems, particularly when the opposition know how to exploit them. Brentford have shown they can make life difficult for this style of football.

Liverpool's early-season numbers also make uncomfortable reading. They have scored just six non-penalty Premier League goals — the sixth-fewest in the division. More concerning is the lack of quality chances they are creating. They have manufactured only nine Opta-defined big chances, the joint-lowest total alongside Aston Villa and Coventry. Brighton, by comparison, have created 27.

Therefore, the under 3.5 goals element also appeals. At 11/10 with Sky Bet, backing Brentford on the double chance alongside under 3.5 goals offers a route in. Score prediction: 2-1.

Fulham vs Hull City: Hull double chance the bet of the weekend at 6/5

The betting market still appears reluctant to trust Hull City whatsoever, with their long-standing underlying data seemingly carrying too much weight in the assessment of their chances. But football matches are not played on historical spreadsheets. And what Hull are producing right now suggests they deserve considerably more respect.

They have lost just one of their six Premier League matches this season, against Newcastle — and even that defeat came with a significant caveat: Hull won the expected goals battle. They also came out on top in that metric during their 2-2 draw at Chelsea.

Hull are proving capable of competing with established Premier League sides while carrying a genuine threat of their own. They look a dangerous proposition for a Fulham side who have looked alarmingly fragile when games have begun to turn against them. The collapses against Ipswich and Crystal Palace, having been in winning positions, are difficult to ignore. Against an opponent willing to keep asking questions, that defensive vulnerability could become costly.

At 6/5 with Sky Bet, Hull on the double chance is the bet of the weekend. The market is still judging Hull on what they were rather than what they are. Score prediction: 1-2.

Manchester City vs Ipswich: Both teams to score at 4/5

Manchester City are winning football matches at a rate that their underlying numbers simply cannot justify. That is not necessarily a reason to oppose them but it does make me question whether the market is giving enough consideration to the chances their opponents are creating.

No team has overperformed its expected-goals numbers more than City, with the expected-points model suggesting they should have collected around seven fewer points than they have. That gap deserves scrutiny. It is not just about City's ruthless finishing at one end, it is also about the opportunities they are allowing at the other.

Look at Sunderland, who generated 2.97 expected goals from 17 shots against City. Coventry also managed 12 shots in their 1-0 defeat at the Etihad. That opens the door for Ipswich to contribute to the scoring here. At 4/5 with Sky Bet, both teams to score is the angle. City's results may be sparkling in the Premier League but their underlying defensive numbers tell a less comfortable story. Score prediction: 3-1.

Newcastle vs Aston Villa: Manzambi to score at 3/1

Johan Manzambi could be one of the Premier League's breakout stars this season. Under Unai Emery, the young Swiss forward has been given a prominent role playing off the central striker, and the early signs are that he is ready to make the most of it.

The shot volume is what really catches the eye. In his last three starts, Manzambi has registered 13 shots, with four hitting the target and two finding the net. When that kind of volume is combined with a favourable fixture, the goalscorer market starts to look interesting.

And Newcastle are about as favourable a defensive opponent as you could ask for. If the Magpies concede here, they will set a new club record for consecutive home games in all competitions without keeping a clean sheet (16). Their defensive record at St James' Park this calendar year is particularly damning, conceding 36 goals and keeping just two clean sheets across 20 home matches in all competitions. At 3/1 with Sky Bet, Manzambi to score is the play. Score prediction: 1-2.

Bournemouth vs Sunderland: Under 2.5 goals at Evens

Bournemouth and Sunderland have managed just one win between them across their six matches this season. That sort of start can change the psychology of a football match. Confidence becomes fragile and avoiding defeat can feel more important than chasing victory.

That makes under 2.5 goals at Evens an interesting proposition with Sky Bet. Bournemouth's historical goal numbers might tempt you towards another open, entertaining contest. Across their last 50 matches, the average total has been 3.1 goals per game. But I would be wary of leaning too heavily on that data in this spot.

Talking points

Should Chelsea abandon zonal marking after conceding seven set-piece goals this season — the most in the Premier League?
Is Liverpool's attacking output a temporary blip or a structural issue after creating just nine big chances all season?
Can Hull City sustain their top-flight form despite the market continuing to doubt their underlying numbers?
Will Newcastle's woeful home defensive record cost them against an in-form Aston Villa attack?

What happens next

All six fixtures take place across Saturday and Sunday. Everton vs Chelsea kicks off at 12.30pm on Saturday, with Newcastle vs Aston Villa live on Sky Sports at 5.30pm. Bournemouth vs Sunderland is live on Sky Sports on Sunday at 2pm. Check back for team news and confirmed line-ups ahead of kick-off.

Frequently asked questions

Is James Tarkowski a good bet to score against Chelsea?

Yes, according to Jones Knows. Tarkowski is 14/1 with Sky Bet and leads Everton's defenders for touches in the opposition box and shots, while Chelsea have conceded more set-piece goals than any Premier League side this season.