Crystal Palace's Set-Piece Empire Is Built on Sand

Crystal Palace have become the Premier League's set-piece specialists, but their dependence on dead-ball situations is a ticking time bomb that will explode in their faces.

The Rise of the Set-Piece Kings

Since Patrick Vieira's departure, Palace have leaned heavily on set-piece coach Andrew Sparkes. Last season, they scored a league-high 16 goals from set pieces, accounting for 42% of their total. This season, that reliance has intensified: six of their nine goals have come from corners or free-kicks. Their xG from set pieces is the highest in the division, but their open-play xG ranks in the bottom three.

Historically, teams that overperform on set pieces regress. Tony Pulis's Stoke City were famed for their long throws and corners, but they never finished higher than 13th after their initial surge. More recently, Burnley's 2017-18 side relied on set pieces for 38% of their goals; they were relegated the following season. Palace are on a similar trajectory.

The Argument: Open-Play Impotence

Palace's open-play attacking metrics are dire. They average just 8.3 open-play shots per game, the third-lowest in the league. Their expected goals from open play (xGOP) is 0.7 per game, better only than Sheffield United and Luton. Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise are elite dribblers, but they lack a cohesive structure to create chances. The midfield trio of Cheick Doucouré, Jefferson Lerma, and Will Hughes is industrious but devoid of creativity. The result is a team that struggles to break down organised defences.

  • Palace have created only 12 open-play chances from central areas all season, the fewest in the league.
  • Their strikers, Odsonne Edouard and Jean-Philippe Mateta, have combined for just two open-play goals, both from inside the six-yard box.
  • When trailing, Palace have taken just 14 shots on target in the second half of matches, the lowest in the division.

The Counter-Argument: Set Pieces Are a Valid Strategy

Some argue that set pieces are an efficient way to score, especially for smaller clubs. After all, a goal is a goal, regardless of how it's scored. Brentford have built a successful Premier League stay on set pieces and analytics. However, Brentford also have a robust open-play system under Thomas Frank, with quick transitions and intelligent pressing. Palace lack that. Moreover, set-piece goals are less sustainable because they depend on fouls and corners, which are not guaranteed. Over a season, the variance is high. When the set-piece goals dry up, as they did in November (zero set-piece goals in four games), Palace's lack of open-play threat is exposed.

Verdict: Relegation Battle Looms

Palace will not be relegated solely because of their set-piece reliance, but it will be a significant factor. Their underlying numbers suggest a team that will struggle to score enough goals to stay clear of danger. I predict that by the end of the season, Palace will have scored fewer than 40 goals and will finish within five points of the relegation zone. If they do not address their open-play creativity in the January window, they will be playing Championship football next season.

Filed under: Tactical Analysis | LA Premier League Home