Premier League xG Table: Arsenal Best, Newcastle Lucky, Brighton Lead Attack

Arsenal top the xG difference table as Brighton hand them heaviest defeat in three years

Champions Arsenal remain the Premier League's best team overall according to expected goals (xG) difference, even after their biggest defeat in three years at Brighton last weekend. Manchester City sit close behind, while Brentford's unbeaten start is no fluke. At the other end, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Newcastle have been the least impressive.

Competition: Premier League, first five games of the season
Key finding: Arsenal have the best xG difference despite a heavy defeat at Brighton
Attack leaders: Brighton first for xG, then Manchester City, Brentford and Manchester United
Clinical outlier: Newcastle have scored 9 goals from 4.5 xG, the lowest xG in the league
Underperformers: Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have each scored three goals fewer than expected
Promoted sides: Hull and Ipswich have both made solid starts

The numbers

Arsenal: Best xG difference in the league; by far the best backline despite the Brighton defeat; eight teams have a higher xG going forward
Brighton: Highest xG in the league (10.7) and have scored 15 non-penalty goals from that figure
Newcastle: Lowest xG in the league (4.5) but have scored 9 goals
Teams scoring three fewer than expected: Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham
Teams conceding three fewer than expected: Everton and Leeds
Chelsea: Conceded 12 goals, but not quite as terrible as that number suggests
Manchester United: Only three teams have a higher xG difference
Liverpool: Mid-table for xG going forward; described as having a solid defensive foundation under Andoni Iraola

Same old Arsenal – champions still the best on xG

Arsenal may have been pecked by the Seagulls last weekend, but their underlying numbers are still the strongest in the division. The champions have by far the best backline, even after the heavy defeat at Brighton. What is surprising is that eight teams have a higher xG than Arsenal, despite their reputation for defensive solidity under their manager. Liverpool and Chelsea also rank in mid-table for xG going forward, suggesting that both sides are still finding their attacking rhythm in the early weeks.

Manchester City's dominance is not far behind Arsenal's. The leaders have controlled their matches as expected, while Brentford have been genuinely impressive – their unbeaten start is built on solid underlying numbers rather than luck. Manchester United constantly seem to flip between feast and famine, but often they have simply been fine. Despite an underwhelming start, only three teams have a higher xG difference than the Red Devils.

Brighton's brilliance and Newcastle's sharp shooting

Going forward, Brighton have the best attack in the league based on the number and quality of chances created. They have the highest xG (10.7) and have been ruthless in front of goal, scoring 15 non-penalty goals. Their manager Fabian Hurzeler has overseen a thrilling attacking unit, but their brilliance has come at a cost – they have not been particularly solid in defence, and perhaps they have been a little fortunate not to have conceded more often.

The only team more clinical than the Seagulls is their avian cousins, the Magpies. Newcastle have the lowest xG in the league so far – just 4.5 – yet have scored 9 goals, twice as many as a team historically would given those chances. Head coach Matthias Jaissle will want his side to create more and not rely on such sharp finishing as the season progresses.

In contrast, Coventry, Sunderland, Nottingham Forest and Tottenham have all scored three goals fewer than they should have from their first five games. It will be interesting to see whether those teams genuinely have a finishing problem or whether their luck simply begins to change.

Defensive concerns and unexpected solidity

Arsenal remain the benchmark defensively. Nottingham Forest head coach Oliver Glasner has work to do to get his side scoring, but he has already instilled a solid foundation at the back. Andoni Iraola has done similarly at Liverpool, where the defensive structure looks strong despite mid-table xG going forward.

There is a lot of construction work needed in the capital. Crystal Palace, Fulham and Chelsea have all been far too open at the back this season, although Xabi Alonso's Chelsea are not quite as terrible as the 12 goals they have conceded suggests. Meanwhile, Everton and Leeds have both conceded three goals fewer than expected given the chances they have faced, and both have been among the strongest defensively overall.

Promoted sides making their mark

Worryingly for the established sides, the promoted teams seem like they will not go down without a fight. Both Hull and Ipswich have made genuinely solid starts to the campaign, suggesting that the battle for survival could be more competitive than expected. The early table may not tell the whole story, but the underlying numbers show that these newly promoted sides are holding their own.

Talking points

Arsenal are the best team on xG despite their heavy defeat at Brighton – does that mean the champions are still the team to beat?
Newcastle have the lowest xG in the league but are in the top half. Is their clinical finishing sustainable or will they slide?
Brighton's attacking brilliance is clear, but their defensive openness could cost them a European place if not addressed.
Promoted Hull and Ipswich are making solid starts – could both survive comfortably, defying pre-season predictions?

What happens next

With five games played, the current standings and xG tables will be tested when the Premier League returns. Arsenal will look to bounce back from their Brighton defeat, while Manchester City aim to maintain their dominance. Newcastle must create more chances to support their sharp finishing, and the promoted sides will try to keep proving that they belong. The next round of fixtures will give a clearer picture of whether these early trends are real or just statistical noise.

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best xG difference in the Premier League so far?

Arsenal have the best xG difference in the league, even after their heavy defeat at Brighton, with Manchester City close behind.

Which Premier League team has the highest xG this season?

Brighton have the highest xG (10.7) and have scored 15 non-penalty goals from those chances, making them the most prolific attacking side by underlying numbers.