Scott McTominay has become the Premier League's most prolific midfielder since the start of last season—and that is not a compliment to Manchester United

The Scotland international has scored 12 Premier League goals since August 2023, more than any other central midfielder in the division. Yet his manager Erik ten Hag has consistently deployed him as a defensive anchor or a substitute. This is not randomness; it is a tactical blind spot.

The history of the 'shadow striker' midfielder is littered with misfits who found a home

From Frank Lampard at Chelsea to Aaron Ramsey at Arsenal, the art of the late-arriving midfielder was once a cultivated specialism. McTominay's expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes of 0.18 places him in the 90th percentile among Premier League midfielders. Lampard's peak xG per 90 was 0.22; Ramsey's was 0.16. McTominay is operating at elite levels, yet his team treats him as a utility player.

Consider the data: McTominay averages 2.3 shots per 90, with 1.1 inside the penalty area. For context, Manchester City's Julian Alvarez—a designated forward—averages 2.5 shots per 90. McTominay's shot conversion rate of 22% is higher than any United striker in the same period.

Manchester United's midfield structure actively suppresses McTominay's greatest strength

Ten Hag's system demands that his number 8s either press aggressively or sit deep to protect a vulnerable back line. McTominay is asked to do both, but never to roam freely. The result is a player who scores in bursts from chaos—when he ignores instructions—rather than through design.

  • In the 2023/24 season, McTominay scored seven goals in 27 appearances, many as a substitute. His minutes-per-goal ratio (152) was better than Rasmus Højlund (171) and Marcus Rashford (198).
  • Of his 12 league goals since last season, ten have come from runs beyond the striker—the classic 'shadow striker' movement. Only one came from a set piece.
  • When McTominay starts as a number 10 (rarely), his average positions show he spends more time in the box than Bruno Fernandes. United scored 1.8 goals per game in those matches versus 1.2 when he plays deeper.

The evidence is clear: McTominay is a goal threat when liberated, but Ten Hag's tactical conservatism shackles him.

The counter-argument—that McTominay lacks the technical ability to play higher up—collapses on inspection

Critics point to his passing accuracy (83%) and ball retention under pressure. Yet his pass completion in the final third is 79%, and his progressive passes per 90 (4.1) equal those of James Maddison. The real issue is not ability, but role. McTominay's defensive work—tackles (1.8 per 90), interceptions (0.9)—is adequate but not elite. Ten Hag prioritises defensive solidity over attacking output from midfield, which is why he prefers the pedestrian pairing of Casemiro and Christian Eriksen.

But the numbers show United concede only 0.1 more goals per game when McTominay plays as a number 8 versus a number 10. The defensive sacrifice is negligible; the attacking gain is substantial.

McTominay will leave Old Trafford this summer and score 15 goals for a mid-table club—proving Ten Hag's failure to adapt

Juventus, according to recent reports, are interested. If he moves to Serie A, expect a career renaissance akin to Ramsey's at Juventus—until injury. In the Premier League, a club like Aston Villa or West Ham could unlock him. My prediction: In his first full season away from Manchester United, McTominay will score at least 12 league goals—more than he ever managed in a single campaign under Ten Hag.

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