The Premier League's punishment machine has the wrong targets

The Premier League's profit and sustainability rules are not a mechanism for fairness; they are a charter for the status quo, a velvet rope that keeps the nouveau riche outside while the old money sips champagne in the executive box. The recent spate of points deductions has revealed the true purpose of financial regulation: not to ensure competitive balance, but to entrench the dominance of those who got rich before the rules were written.

From Portsmouth to Everton: a history of selective enforcement

Consider the fate of Everton. Twice deducted points for overspending, they now fight for survival while the big six swim in a sea of commercial revenue that their global brand recognition – not their sporting merit – guarantees. Manchester City, with 115 charges hanging over their head, have won four consecutive titles while the investigation crawls through legal appeals. The system is not blind; it has tunnel vision, and it focuses on the clubs that threaten the established hierarchy.

Contrast Everton's punishment with the £100m+ losses routinely posted by Chelsea under Roman Abramovich, losses that were always conveniently structured to avoid sanction. Or look at Aston Villa, who have spent heavily to break into the top six but now face the constant threat of breaching limits, while Tottenham, who spend nothing and win nothing, are praised for their fiscal prudence. The rules were not designed to stop clubs from going bust; Portsmouth, after all, were deducted points and still went into administration. They were designed to stop clubs from getting too big for their boots.

The revenue inequality that makes FFP a farce

The core flaw is that FFP metrics are tied to revenue, and revenue is a function of size, not merit. Big clubs generate vast sums from gate receipts, broadcast deals, and commercial partners simply because they have been big for decades. Manchester United can finish eighth and still earn more from shirt sales than a newly promoted club receives in total turnover. FFP does not penalise excessive spending; it penalises spending that is not matched by pre-existing income.

  • In the 2022-23 season, Manchester City's commercial revenue alone was €400m, more than the entire turnover of most Premier League clubs.
  • Everton's proposed new stadium at Bramley-Moore Dock will add matchday revenue, but while it is built, they are forced to sell their brightest talents to balance the books.
  • Brighton have become the model of smart recruitment, but their model only works because they sell to the big clubs – a self-defeating cycle that keeps the hierarchy intact.

The counter-argument collapses under scrutiny

Defenders of FFP argue that it prevents reckless spending and protects clubs from their own owners. They point to Bury and Macclesfield, clubs that went under due to financial mismanagement, as proof that regulation is necessary. But this conflates mismanagement with ambition. Everton's overspend was not a scam; it was an attempt to compete with clubs whose revenues are multiples of their own. The rules ensure that the gap between the haves and have-nots never closes, because any attempt to bridge it is met with a points deduction that virtually guarantees relegation.

If the Premier League truly cared about financial stability, it would implement a luxury tax, as in the NBA, or a hard salary cap. Instead, it has a system that punishes the challengers and protects the incumbents. The result is a league where the same six clubs finish in the top six year after year, where the title race is a procession, and where the only excitement is the battle to avoid the drop.

The verdict: expect the farce to continue

I predict that within the next three seasons, a club will be relegated while spending within all FFP rules, simply because their broadcast revenue is insufficient to keep pace with the market. And I predict that no big-six club will ever be relegated for financial breaches, no matter how many charges are proven. The Premier League is not a meritocracy; it is a cartel, and FFP is its enforcement arm. The sooner we stop pretending otherwise, the sooner we can begin to fix the game.

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