Chelsea vs Hull City headlines Premier League Week 4 predictions

Hull City arrive at Stamford Bridge with seven points and three consecutive clean sheets, but tipster Lewis Jones expects them to fall short. He predicts a 0-1 win for Chelsea, while also backing under 1.5 first-half goals and under 3.5 total goals at even money.

Full weekend predictions

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm

Oliver Glasner is unbeaten in seven meetings with Unai Emery, winning five. Across the last five league meetings, Glasner's teams have created 2.47 expected goals per 90. Jones believes Glasner's tactical hold over Emery is not factored into the pricing, making the draw-no-bet on Forest at 5/4 with Sky Bet generous. Score prediction: 1-2

Bournemouth vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm

Brentford have shown more aggression this season, with high turnovers per 90 up to 3.1 and 6.2 more fouls committed per 90. Vitaly Janelt has made 10 fouls in four games and been booked in all three Premier League games. Jones's best bet is Janelt to make two or more fouls at 7/4 with Sky Bet. Score prediction: 1-2

Chelsea vs Hull City, Saturday 3pm

Hull have adapted impressively to the Premier League with seven points from three games and three straight clean sheets. In their last 16 league games with under 45 per cent possession and starting at bigger than 2/1, they have conceded just nine goals, losing only two, and conceded just two first-half goals. Jones expects a low-scoring game. Score prediction: 0-1

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town, Saturday 3pm

Ipswich's defeat to Liverpool hid a reasonably encouraging performance, leaving boss Gary O'Neil very positive. Palace won at Fulham but were comprehensively second best across major performance metrics, and eight goals conceded in three games is a concern. Jones predicts a draw at 23/10. Score prediction: 1-1

Liverpool vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm

Fulham's defensive structure under Alvaro Arbeloa has been wild, with long gone the stability under Marco Silva. Liverpool should get transition opportunities. Fulham have had the most touches in the opposition box, with Josh King leading the charge. Jones tips King to score at 9/2 with Sky Bet. Score prediction: 3-1

Tottenham vs Everton, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Tottenham are still waiting for their first goal of the season, now 317 minutes without a Premier League goal since scoring against Everton in May. They have never failed to score in each of their first four league games of a season before. Everton's attack ranks similarly in chance quality. Jones advises under 2.5 goals at 5/6 with Sky Bet. Score prediction: 0-0

Sunderland vs Arsenal, Saturday 8pm

Arsenal are priced at 4/9 with Sky Bet, but Sunderland's defensive structure, home form and Arsenal's midweek Champions League exertions could make this trickier. Bukayo Saka has won 10 fouls in three Premier League appearances, second in the division. Reinildo Mandava made five fouls in this fixture last season. Jones tips Saka to win three or more fouls at 7/4 with Sky Bet. Score prediction: 0-1

Coventry City vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Coventry have lost their first three Premier League games, and only one promoted team from 12 in that position has survived. The 2/1 with Sky Bet about Coventry finishing bottom could become popular. Brighton have the highest expected goals return, most open play crosses and most big chances this season. Jones backs the away win at 17/20 with Sky Bet. Score prediction: 1-2

Manchester United vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

There are lingering doubts about Manchester United's long-term prospects under Michael Carrick, mostly due to worrying defensive metrics. However, Carrick has shown a knack of getting big results against big clubs. In eight matches against the traditional "big six" and Aston Villa... [source text truncated]

Why Chelsea will struggle to break Hull down

Hull City have built their seven-point start on a well-oiled defensive machine without the ball. Their expected goals numbers suggest they have ridden their luck to some degree, but the organisation is not accidental. In 16 league games where they had less than 45 per cent possession and started at bigger than 2/1, they conceded just nine goals and lost only two, averaging a lowly 1.7 goals per game ratio. They shipped just two first-half goals in that run.

Jones is rowing against a market that has the expected goals line almost at 3.25, predicting attack to outgun defence. He prefers to give Hull more chance than the 11/1 away win suggests. The BuildABet play of under 1.5 first-half goals paired with under 3.5 total goals at Evens looks shrewd based on Hull's ability to make games difficult for any opponent.

Talking points

  • Can Hull City really keep a fourth consecutive clean sheet at Stamford Bridge, or will Chelsea's attack finally break them down?
  • Is Oliver Glasner's unbeaten record against Unai Emery a genuine tactical edge or just a statistical quirk that will regress?
  • Vitaly Janelt has been booked in all three Premier League games — is the fouls bet a smarter play than a card bet at 7/4?
  • Tottenham have never failed to score in their first four league games of a season, but 317 minutes without a goal makes under 2.5 goals tempting.

What happens next

All ten Premier League fixtures take place across Saturday and Sunday, with Chelsea vs Hull City among the 3pm kick-offs. Tottenham vs Everton (5.30pm Saturday) and Manchester United vs Manchester City (4.30pm Sunday) are live on Sky Sports. Jones's best bets include Vitaly Janelt to make two or more fouls at 7/4 and first-half under 1.5 goals plus under 3.5 total goals at Evens with Sky Bet.

Frequently asked questions

What is Lewis Jones's prediction for Chelsea vs Hull City?

He predicts a 0-1 win for Chelsea, with his best bet being first half under 1.5 goals and under 3.5 total goals at Evens with Sky Bet.

Who is Jones's best bet for Bournemouth vs Brentford?

Vitaly Janelt to make two or more fouls at 7/4 with Sky Bet, based on his 10 fouls in four games and bookings in all three Premier League matches.

What time is Manchester United vs Manchester City?

Kick-off is Sunday at 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports. Jones notes lingering doubts about United's defensive metrics under Michael Carrick.

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