Hull City's Unexpected Premier League Start: Eight Points from Four Games
Hull City have confounded expectations in the 2026-27 Premier League, taking eight points from their first four matches. A 2-2 draw at Chelsea followed wins over Manchester United and Coventry and a draw with Aston Villa, leaving Sergej Jakirovic's side among the best-starting promoted teams in Premier League history.
- Date: 15 September 2026 (source article publication)
- Latest result: Chelsea 2-2 Hull City, Stamford Bridge
- Premier League points: 8 from 4 matches
- Manager: Sergej Jakirovic
- Key fact: Only Nottingham Forest (10 pts, 1994-95) and Bolton Wanderers (10 pts, 2001-02) have earned more points after four Premier League matchdays as a promoted side.
- Next concern: International break with 13 national team players
What was said
"Mostly we will be underdogs, but we’re used to it."
"I’m a bit concerned about the international break because we have 13 national team players."
The numbers
Hull City's start is built on a direct, deep-lying style. In the Championship last season, they averaged 45.0% possession, the fifth lowest in the division. This term, that figure has dropped to 29.3%.
Their average starting position of open-play passing sequences is 37.7 metres from their own goal-line, the deepest in the Premier League. They average just 2.5 passes per sequence, the fewest in the top flight, and have managed only one sequence of 10+ passes ending with a shot or touch in the opposition box, also the lowest.
Defensively, they rank fourth for duel success (53.2%), sixth for aerial duel success (52.3%), joint fifth for tackle attempts (65) and second for long passes (237).
In the Championship last season, Hull amassed 73 points but their expected points (xPts) was just 53.1. Only Sheffield Wednesday (30.0) recorded fewer xPts. Their overperformance of 19.9 in relation to xPts was the biggest in the Championship.
How Hull City's Underdog Mentality Is Paying Off
Hull City were widely written off before a ball was kicked in the 2026-27 Premier League season. Some predicted they would threaten Derby County's record for the lowest points total in Premier League history. Such predictions were reactive and dramatic, but they reflected the discourse around a surprising promotion.
Their Championship campaign was hardly emphatic. The underlying numbers painted a picture of a team who overachieved massively. Had the real table reflected the xPts table, they would have finished in the bottom three and been relegated. On that evidence, a season in the Premier League looked daunting.
But as early as it still is, Jakirovic's men have confounded all expectations. Saturday's 2-2 draw with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge was their latest shock result. Up against the Blues' in-form front three of João Pedro, Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers, few gave them any chance, even accounting for their hosts' unimpressive defensive record this term.
Hull fell behind early to Rogers' clinical finish, but found themselves 2-1 up at half-time thanks to a couple of Mohamed Belloumi strikes. João Pedro equalised for Chelsea just after the hour, and many might have expected them to power home to success, particularly given the nature of their midweek EFL Cup win over Leeds United. But Hull were good value for the point they left with. They might even argue they should have won based on the balance of clear-cut opportunities; Hull had four 'big chances' to Chelsea's two on the day.
It was a continuation of Hull's highly encouraging start to the Premier League season that saw them beat Manchester United and Coventry before drawing with Aston Villa. As such, they find themselves on eight points after four matches, making their start to 2026-27 one of the best introductions to the Premier League for a promoted team.
The only promoted sides in Premier League history to earn more than eight points after four matchdays are Nottingham Forest (10 pts – 1994-95) and Bolton Wanderers (10 pts – 2001-02). Neither of those two teams were relegated, nor were the other two promoted sides to start a Premier League campaign with eight points through Matchday 4.
One theory for their excellent start and adaptation to the Premier League is that they are so well adjusted to the football they're playing. Even in the Championship, they weren't a team who regularly dominated the ball and looked to exert control with possession. Over the course of the full 2025-26 season (including play-offs), Hull averaged 45.0% possession, the fifth lowest in the division. Although it is still a considerable drop to their 29.3% this season, it's not like they've gone from generally having more of the ball than their opposition to suddenly having very little of it.
Coventry City, on the other hand, had 55.1% of the ball last season – the fourth most in the Championship – to just 38.6% in the Premier League. The drop is comparable to that of Hull but arguably more significant is the shift in mindset for Coventry because they've gone from tending to have more possession than the opposition to having considerably less.
This isn't exactly a phenomenon specific to this season, though. It might be said Hull are following the example of Sunderland. The Black Cats were promoted in 2024-25 without trying to dominate the ball, so they were perfectly familiar with that mentality once they were in the Premier League. Granted, they also spent a lot of money and bought well, but maintaining a certain mindset in the squad will have had some impact.
Sunderland boss Régis Le Bris effectively touched upon the subject last week, outlining the importance of balancing humility and belief. He embraces the "underdog" tag but also doesn't want his players to only think about beating opposition from the bottom half of the table.
Prior to last season, there had been a series of teams being promoted playing possession-focused football, but they were then either unable to maintain that following the step up, or were less effective at turning control into points (see Southampton from 2024-25).
Obviously there's more to it than just possession figures, but these do give us a reasonable idea of a team's mindset on the ball. Hull have essentially doubled down on the kind of football they played last season.
Hull were one of the deepest teams in the Championship last term, with the average starting position of their open-play passing sequences being 41.2 metres from their goal-line; they are the deepest team in the Premier League this term (37.7m). They were one of the least intricate teams in the Championship, managing just 39 (sixth fewest) sequences of 10+ passes ending with a shot or touch in the opposition's box; they rank bottom in the PL this term (1). They were one of the most direct teams in the second tier, averaging just 2.7 passes per sequence (fifth fewest); they are averaging the fewest (2.5) in the top flight.
They've made themselves tough to beat, though, firstly because they prioritise not conceding, but also through simply being sturdy competitors. They rank fourth for duel success (53.2%), sixth for aerial duel success (52.3%), joint fifth for tackle attempts (65) and second for long passes (237) in the Premier League. It may not be the prettiest, but over the first few matchdays it's been effective.
Jakirovic said after Saturday's draw that he told the team at the beginning of the season they'd get a week off if they could manage seven or eight points across their first five matches. They reached that target with time to spare, though Jakirovic doesn't appear to be taking much for granted, worried about what could be around the corner. "I'm a bit concerned about the international break because we have 13 national team players," he added on Saturday, fully aware that a great start will mean nothing if their form quickly nosedives.
After all, Hull have enjoyed promising starts to Premier League seasons before and ultimately gone on to have stressful campaigns. In 2008-09, Hull were third in the table after nine matchdays and remained in the top half until MD24, before only escaping relegation by a single point. The 2013-14 season saw them take 11 points from the [source article truncated]
Talking points
- Underdog mentality: Hull City were written off before the season, with some predicting they would threaten Derby County's record for the lowest points total. Instead, they have embraced their underdog status and taken eight points from four games.
- Style of play: Hull have doubled down on the direct, deep-lying football they played in the Championship. They average the fewest passes per sequence in the Premier League (2.5) and have the deepest average starting position of open-play passing sequences (37.7m).
- Historical precedent: Only Nottingham Forest (10 pts, 1994-95) and Bolton Wanderers (10 pts, 2001-02) have earned more points after four Premier League matchdays as a promoted side. Neither was relegated, nor were the other two promoted sides to start with eight points.
What happens next
Hull City head into the international break with 13 national team players, a concern for manager Sergej Jakirovic. They will look to maintain their momentum when the Premier League resumes. The source article does not specify their next fixture.
Frequently asked questions
How many points do Hull City have after four Premier League games?
Hull City have eight points from their first four matches of the 2026-27 Premier League season, according to theanalyst.com.
Who did Hull City beat in their first Premier League games?
Hull City beat Manchester United and Coventry City, and drew with Aston Villa and Chelsea.
What is Hull City's style of play under Sergej Jakirovic?
Hull City play a direct, deep-lying style. They average the fewest passes per sequence in the Premier League (2.5) and have the deepest average starting position of open-play passing sequences (37.7m). They prioritise not conceding and rank highly for duel success, aerial duel success, tackle attempts and long passes.
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