Hull Citys Premier League Rise and the Championship Seventh-Place Curse

Hull City's Premier League Rise and the Championship Seventh-Place Curse

Hull City are competing in the Premier League this season, but their recent Championship past offers a warning. A new analysis reveals that teams finishing seventh in the Championship often struggle the following year, and Hull's own 21st-place finish in 2024-25 shows how quickly fortunes can change.

Hull City are now in the Premier League after surviving the Championship on the final day in 2024-25.
Wrexham missed the playoffs by two points last season and are currently 17th in the Championship.
Only once in the last seven Championship seasons has a seventh-place team finished higher than 17th the next year.
Hull City finished 21st in 2024-25 after a turbulent campaign with transfer restrictions.
Tim Walter was sacked and replaced by Ruben Selles during that season.
Key players Jacob Greaves and Jaden Philogene were sold to raise funds.

The worrying trend Wrexham could follow

According to si.com, only once in the last seven Championship seasons has a team that finished seventh gone on to finish higher than 17th the following campaign. Even more concerning, across the last 15 Championship seasons, only once has a seventh-place finisher gone on to finish in the top half the following year. The team that bucked the trend was Middlesbrough in 2022–23, and even then, a managerial change was required.

Wrexham are far from the first club to find themselves in this position. Their current predicament follows a trend that suggests turning the season around could prove difficult. Having missed out on the playoffs by just two points last season, Wrexham's slow start to the new Championship campaign has been particularly hard to take. Had the Red Dragons turned just one of their 14 draws into a win, they would have finished above Hull City, who are now competing in the Premier League.

Hull City's own escape

Hull City's 2024-25 campaign is a prime example of the trend. They finished 21st, surviving only on the final day of the season after a turbulent campaign that included various transfer restrictions stemming from financial problems. Tim Walter was sacked and replaced by Ruben Selles, while key players Jacob Greaves and Jaden Philogene had to be sold to raise funds.

That Hull City are now in the Premier League is a remarkable turnaround. The club's recent history underscores how quickly a season can unravel, and how difficult it can be to build on a seventh-place finish. Wrexham, currently 17th in October, still have time to buck the trend, but the statistics are not in their favour.

What went wrong for the other teams?

There is no single explanation for the apparent seventh-place curse. Clubs have failed to build on their previous success for a variety of reasons, with financial problems, points deductions and protests against ownership featuring prominently in several cases. Others have sold key players without adequately replacing them. Wrexham have not lost any major first-team players so far, but their questionable recruitment is a concern they share with several clubs that struggled to finish in the top half the following season.

Injuries, mental fatigue and tactical stagnation have also played a role. Perhaps the most common issue, however, has been complacency. From the outside, it is easy to assume that a team finishing seventh will be well placed to repeat that achievement the following season. That assumption can contribute to underinvestment in the transfer market, while the disappointment of narrowly missing out on the playoffs can also linger within a squad.

It is important to remember that Wrexham are only 17th in October and still have plenty of time to buck the trend. What may alarm supporters, however, is how frequently managerial changes have followed disappointing campaigns among teams in similar positions.

Case studies: from Blackburn to Ipswich

2025–26: Blackburn Rovers—20th. Blackburn failed to adequately replace key players Callum Brittain, Tyrhys Dolan and Lewis Travis. Defender Dom Hyam also moved to Wrexham on Deadline Day during the summer transfer window. Blackburn could easily have been relegated had Leicester City and West Bromwich Albion not suffered points deductions. Valérien Ismaël was sacked in February, although many supporters believe the club's owners were ultimately responsible for its decline.

2024–25: Hull City—21st. Hull survived only on the final day of the season after a turbulent campaign that included various transfer restrictions stemming from financial problems. Tim Walter was sacked and replaced by Ruben Selles, while key players Jacob Greaves and Jaden Philogene had to be sold to raise funds.

2023–24: Blackburn Rovers—19th. Blackburn missed out on the playoffs on goal difference and paid the price for a poor summer transfer window. Key players Adam Wharton, Ben Brereton Díaz and Thomas Kaminski departed without being adequately replaced. Jon Dahl Tomasson was sacked in February, with supporters increasingly frustrated by the ownership of the Venkys.

2022–23: Middlesbrough—4th. The exception to the trend, although a managerial change proved decisive. Michael Carrick was appointed in October and lifted Boro from 21st to fourth. His fresh coaching approach reinvigorated the squad, while the January loan signing of Cameron Archer provided an additional attacking threat.

2021–22: Reading—21st. Reading's decline was heavily influenced by financial mismanagement. The club changed managers twice and was deducted six points for breaching profit and sustainability regulations. At one stage, player wages accounted for 234% of revenue. Reading would have been relegated had Derby County not received an even larger points deduction.

2020–21: Nottingham Forest—17th. Mental fatigue was a significant factor in Forest's disappointing campaign. They needed only a draw on the final day to secure a playoff place but suffered a shock 4–1 home defeat to Stoke City and failed to recover. Sabri Lamouchi remained in charge at the start of the season before being sacked in October. Chris Hughton steadied the team but struggled to deliver an attacking threat.

2019–20: Middlesbrough—17th. An inexperienced manager and financial constraints contributed to Boro's struggles. Their parachute payments had ended, forcing Jonathan Woodgate to reduce an oversized squad without sufficient funds to bring in his preferred replacements. Recruitment proved difficult, and the team stabilized after Neil Warnock replaced Woodgate.

2018–19: Preston North End—14th. Preston's 14th-place finish was one of the more encouraging outcomes in this group. They had lost star player Greg Cunningham and had failed to replace striker Jordan Hugill the previous season. After winning just one of their first 11 matches, they recovered despite enduring several injuries throughout the campaign.

2017–18: Leeds United—13th. Leeds started strongly and topped the table in September under Thomas Christiansen, but opponents soon worked out how to counter their approach. Chris Wood had requested a move late in the previous summer, and Leeds struggled to replace him effectively. Disciplinary problems also plagued the team throughout the campaign.

2016–17: Ipswich Town—16th. There are similarities with Wrexham here. Ipswich failed to replace star forward Daryl Murphy and struggled for goals throughout the season. Mick McCarthy faced heavy criticism for his p

Talking points

Hull City's survival was a warning. The Tigers finished 21st in 2024-25 and only stayed up on the final day. Their subsequent Premier League status shows how quickly things can change, but also how perilous a season can become.
Wrexham's investment and expectations. Wrexham spent $48 million in the summer transfer window and are investing $95 million in a new Kop Stand. With a sporting director and chief executive who were not responsible for Phil Parkinson's appointment, improvement is needed.
The managerial merry-go-round. Several clubs in this trend have changed managers, including Hull City, Blackburn Rovers, Middlesbrough, Nottingham Forest and Reading. Stability is rare among seventh-place finishers.

What happens next

Wrexham will attempt to avoid the fate that has befallen many seventh-place finishers. They face a crucial period with an extensive injury list that has kept attacking talisman Josh Windass sidelined for much of the campaign. Phil Parkinson retains the backing of the club's board, but with a sporting director and chief executive who were not responsible for his appointment, improvement is needed if he is to remain in the job. Hull City, meanwhile, will look to establish themselves in the Premier League after their remarkable escape.

Frequently asked questions

What is the seventh-place curse in the Championship?

According to si.com, only once in the last seven Championship seasons has a team that finished seventh gone on to finish higher than 17th the following campaign. Across the last 15 seasons, only once has a seventh-place finisher gone on to finish in the top half the following year.

How did Hull City fare in the 2024-25 Championship season?

Hull City finished 21st and survived only on the final day of the season after a turbulent campaign that included various transfer restrictions stemming from financial problems. Tim Walter was sacked and replaced by Ruben Selles, while key players Jacob Greaves and Jaden Philogene had to be sold to raise funds.

Which team bucked the trend?

Middlesbrough in the 2022–23 season finished fourth after Michael Carrick was appointed in October and lifted them from 21st. The January loan signing of Cameron Archer provided an additional attacking threat.