The numbers don't lie, but they can deceive

Everton are the Premier League's most set-piece-reliant side. According to Opta, 38 per cent of their goals this season have come from dead balls. Impressive, until you realise this is a crutch hiding a broken leg.

Why the obsession is a curse

Sean Dyche has built his reputation on set-pieces at Burnley and now Everton. But the problem is cultural: the entire attacking system is warped to feed corners and free-kicks. Open-play creativity is almost non-existent. Everton rank 18th for open-play expected goals per 90 minutes. They cannot build through midfield because they rarely try.

The knock-on effect is subtle but damning. Players are instructed to aim for throw-ins and corners rather than risk losing possession in the final third. This conservative approach strangles any chance of sustained pressure. Opponents know that if they defend set-pieces adequately, Everton have no Plan B.

The decline is measurable

  • Everton’s open-play shot conversion rate is the second worst in the league at 6.5 per cent.
  • Their average passes per defensive action in the attacking third is 2.1, the lowest in the division. They simply don't trust themselves to move the ball.
  • Defensively, over-committing to set-piece opportunities leaves them exposed on transitions. They have conceded six counter-attacking goals, joint most in the league.

The counter-argument: it works in the short term

Some pundits argue that relying on set-pieces is rational for a relegation-threatened side. After all, it kept Burnley up for years. But the difference is that Burnley had a strong defensive foundation. Everton concede 1.7 expected goals per game, ranking 16th. Their set-piece goals mask a defensive fragility that will eventually collapse.

Moreover, set-piece efficiency is volatile. Last season, Everton scored 12 set-piece goals. This season they are on track for 10. That variance is the difference between survival and relegation. Dyche cannot control it.

Prediction: Everton will finish 18th unless they change

By March 2025, Everton will have scored fewer than 10 open-play goals all season. Their set-piece conversion will regress to the mean, and the lack of a coherent build-up will see them sink into the bottom three. If Dyche survives the season, he must appoint a dedicated attacking coach — or accept that his tactical dogma is a one-way ticket to the Championship.

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