Everton's Relegation Escape Was a Tactical Illusion

Everton's Premier League survival last season was celebrated as a triumph of spirit. It was nothing of the sort. It was a tactical accident waiting to happen again, and the warning signs are already flashing this term.

Historical or tactical context

In the 2022-23 season, Everton stayed up with 36 points—a total that would have relegated them in nine of the previous ten campaigns. Their expected goals (xG) difference was -14.3, the third-worst in the division. They rode a wave of luck: opponents missed penalties, VAR calls went their way, and Sean Dyche's defensive shell held just long enough. But the underlying numbers screamed regression.

Compare that to Burnley's relegated side of 2021-22, which had a similar xG difference (-13.1) and went down. The difference? Burnley didn't have Everton's budget or talent. The Toffees' survival wasn't a tactical masterstroke; it was a statistical anomaly. Dyche's brand of anti-football—deep block, long balls, reliance on set-pieces—has a ceiling, and Everton are hitting it hard.

The argument

The core flaw is Dyche's midfield. Everton concede the most shots from central areas in the league (4.2 per game), because their midfield sits too deep and doesn't press. Opponents walk through the middle. The reliance on Jarrad Branthwaite and James Tarkowski to block shots is unsustainable. It's a recipe for chronic underperformance.

  • Only Sheffield United (relegated) allowed more shots on target per game than Everton's 5.8 last season.
  • Everton's pass completion rate in the opposition half was 68.4%, the lowest in the Premier League.
  • They scored just 34 goals—the second-fewest—and 11 of those came from set-pieces, a proportion that is historically unsustainable.

Dyche's system is designed to be reactive, but it offers no platform for sustained improvement. The sale of Amadou Onana to Aston Villa has removed the only midfielder capable of carrying the ball forward. Idrissa Gueye is 34 and cannot cover the ground. The result is a black hole in the centre of the park.

Counter-argument and rebuttal

The counter-argument is that Dyche has kept Everton up on a shoestring, with points deductions and a dysfunctional board. That is true, but it misses the point. Survival was achieved despite the tactics, not because of them. The expected points model had Everton finishing 18th last season. They outperformed it by 7 points—a margin that is rarely repeated. This season, with no points deduction to galvanise them, and with key players gone, the luck will run out.

Furthermore, the signings of Iliman Ndiaye and Jesper Lindstrøm suggest Dyche wants to evolve, but he lacks the coaching acumen to implement a progressive system. Ndiaye is a maverick who thrives in chaos, not in a rigid 4-4-2. Lindstrøm is a winger who needs the ball to feet, not to chase long diagonals. The squad is a mishmash of styles.

Verdict / Prediction

Everton will be relegated this season. The warning signs are there: a negative goal difference, a midfield that can't control games, and a manager whose tactical ceiling has been reached. By Christmas, they will be in the bottom three, and Dyche will be gone. The only question is whether the next manager can undo the damage before it's too late.

Filed under: Tactical Analysis | LA Premier League Home