Arsenal and Manchester City lead two-team title race after four games

Arsenal and Manchester City are the only Premier League teams with 12 points from four games, opening a four-point gap on third-placed Hull City and five points on the chasing pack. With Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham all making poor starts, the title race already looks like a two-horse contest.

  • Competition: Premier League 2026-27
  • Games played: Four
  • Top two: Arsenal and Manchester City, both on 12 points
  • Gap: Four points to third-placed Hull City, five to the rest
  • At stake: Whether any chasing club can close on the early leaders

How good have Arsenal and Manchester City been?

Arsenal and Manchester City are the only two teams with a perfect record. They sit four points above third-placed Hull City, whose brilliant early form may not put them in any title conversation, and five above the rest.

Arsenal are the defending champions and pre-season title favourites. Under manager Mikel Arteta they ended a 22-year title drought last season with what was often perceived to be an attritional style of play. They started this campaign with a hugely impressive 3-0 victory over Manchester City in the Community Shield.

They have carried on with victories over Coventry, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Sunderland, plus Napoli in the Champions League. Including last season, they are now on a nine-game winning run in the league, and last lost in any competition in 90 minutes to City on 19 April.

Unlike Arsenal, City do not have the continuity this season with boss Pep Guardiola leaving after six titles, including a Treble, in 10 years. Enzo Maresca, once his assistant, has taken over and led them to four wins from four in the league after that loss in Cardiff to the Gunners.

They have beaten Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Coventry, plus Porto in the Champions League, before their controversial 1-0 success at Manchester United on Sunday. Erling Haaland scored the only goal, with the Premier League's refereeing body later admitting a mistake as it should have been ruled out for offside.

Despite their 100% starts, the underlying numbers behind Arsenal and City's starts do not imply total dominance. Brighton (13) and Chelsea (10) have scored more goals than the eight that the top two have both netted. For shots, Arsenal and City rank 10th and 11th, and for touches in the opposition box they are sixth and fifth respectively. Arsenal have only conceded once and City have let in two goals - two of the best records in the league.

How about the rest?

The next three favourites to win the title with most bookmakers - in order - were Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United, with Tottenham some way back. Chelsea and Liverpool both sacked their managers, bringing in Xabi Alonso and Andoni Iraola respectively in the summer. United and Spurs both changed manager earlier in 2026, with Michael Carrick and Roberto de Zerbi having their first pre-seasons.

Last season, Chelsea finished 10th, Liverpool as defending champions were fifth, and Spurs came 17th - with United ending up third after turning things around under Carrick. So for all four, hopes were high this was going to be a better season.

Chelsea are fifth, with only one defeat so far, and have scored 10 goals but conceded nine - the fourth worst record in the division. They have conceded two or more goals in each of their first four matches of a Premier League season for the first time since 2015-16.

Liverpool are down in seventh, unbeaten after four games, but three of those are draws. It is just the third time in the last 63 seasons they have failed to win either of their first two home league games.

United are 13th with four points - equalling their worst start to a Premier League season since 1992-93, level with last season. They have had more shots than anybody else in the league - 84 - and the second fewest shots conceded (41). Despite that they have conceded as many as they have scored - seven.

Spurs would not have considered themselves in the title race after two 17th-placed finishes but would have hoped for a better start as they currently sit 17th. Worse than that, it was the first time in the club's history they have failed to score in their first four league games.

The numbers

  • Arsenal and Manchester City: 12 points from four games each
  • Gap to third-placed Hull City: four points
  • Gap to the rest: five points
  • Goals scored: Arsenal 8, Manchester City 8, Brighton 13, Chelsea 10
  • Shots rank: Arsenal 10th, Manchester City 11th
  • Touches in opposition box: Arsenal 6th, Manchester City 5th
  • Goals conceded: Arsenal 1, Manchester City 2
  • Manchester United shots: 84 (most in the league); shots conceded: 41 (second fewest)
  • Manchester United goals scored/conceded: 7/7
  • Chelsea goals scored/conceded: 10/9
  • Premier League seasons with two or more teams winning first four: six, including this one
  • Teams to win first four English top-flight games: 80; of those, 24 won the title
  • Premier League era: nine of 28 sides to win four on the bounce at the start lifted the title
  • Clubs to win the Premier League having been five or more points behind after four games: two - Manchester United (five times under Sir Alex Ferguson) and Manchester City (2020-21)

What does history tell us?

Prior to this campaign, 80 teams in the English top-flight have won their first four league games of the season. Of those, just 24 went on to win the title, proving that early dominance does not necessarily mean a side will last the pace. In the Premier League era, nine of the 28 sides to win four on the bounce at the start of a season have gone on to lift the title, most recently Manchester City in 2023-24.

There have been just six previous Premier League seasons in which two or more teams have won each of their first four fixtures. And the bad news for the chasing pack is that just two clubs have won the Premier League having been five or more points behind after four games. Manchester United did it five times under Sir Alex Ferguson (1992-93, 1996-97, 1998-99, 2007-08 and 2008-09), while Pep Guardiola's Manchester City achieved the feat in 2020-21.

Why this two-team race might not be a foregone conclusion

Arsenal and Manchester City have maximum points, but the underlying numbers suggest they are not blowing teams away. Both have scored only eight goals, fewer than Brighton and Chelsea. Their shot rankings - 10th and 11th - are mid-table. That means their perfect records have been built on defensive solidity and clinical moments rather than sustained dominance, which is exactly the profile that can crack once the fixture list stiffens.

City are also adapting to life after Pep Guardiola, with Enzo Maresca implementing his own ideas. The 1-0 win at Manchester United came with a refereeing apology after Erling Haaland's goal should have been disallowed for offside. Fine margins are already deciding results at the top.

For the chasing pack, the warning signs are clear. Chelsea have scored freely but conceded nine goals; Liverpool are drawing instead of winning; United have the league's most shots but a negative goal difference; Spurs cannot score at all. Unless one of those sides fixes a glaring flaw quickly, the gap to the top two could become a chasm.

Talking points

  • Arsenal and City are winning without dominating the shot charts - is that sustainable or will their luck run out against better opposition?
  • Chelsea have scored 10 but conceded nine. Can Xabi Alonso fix a defence that has leaked two or more in every league game?
  • Manchester United's 84 shots and 41 conceded suggest control, yet they sit 13th. Is finishing, not creation, their real problem?
  • Spurs have failed to score in four league games for the first time in their history. Is relegation form already a genuine worry?

What happens next

Arsenal and Manchester City return to Premier League action this weekend, with both looking to extend their 100% records. Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham face crucial fixtures as they attempt to close a gap that history says is already difficult to overturn. Only two clubs have won the Premier League after being five or more points behind after four games, and none of the chasing pack can afford another slip.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Premier League title race already a two-horse race?

Arsenal and Manchester City are the only teams with 12 points from four games, four points clear of third-placed Hull City and five clear of the rest. No other side has a perfect record.

How many teams have won the Premier League after being five or more points behind after four games?

Just two clubs: Manchester United, who did it five times under Sir Alex Ferguson, and Pep Guardiola's Manchester City in 2020-21.

What is Tottenham's worst start to a league season?

Spurs have failed to score in their first four league games for the first time in the club's history, and currently sit 17th in the table.

Filed under: Latest News | LA Premier League Home