Nicolas Jackson has four Premier League goals from just 1.98 xG as Aston Villa's gamble pays off
Nicolas Jackson has scored four Premier League goals from an expected goals value of only 1.98 since joining Aston Villa, with his double against Manchester City marking a full-circle moment against the manager who sanctioned his Chelsea exit. The 25-year-old faces Fulham on Saturday Night Football at Villa Park, kick-off 8pm.
- Fixture: Aston Villa vs Fulham, Premier League, Saturday 8pm, live on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League
- Jackson's form: Four Premier League goals from 1.98 xG; seven goals in his last nine appearances across all competitions
- Conversion jump: 21 per cent this season, up from 13.2 per cent in his final Chelsea campaign
- Big chances: Three of five converted (60 per cent) for Villa, compared with 18 of 61 (29 per cent) at Chelsea
- Deal: Total package could reach a club-record £65m after his move from Chelsea
- Context: Villa failed to score until September 8 but have not looked back since a 3-2 win over Club Brugge
Why Jackson is thriving under Emery at Aston Villa
Jackson's career was at a crossroads when he arrived at a club in a state of flux. The move was mutually beneficial, but the early success has exceeded expectations. Named as the heir to Ollie Watkins' throne up front, with Tammy Abraham and Brian Madjo offering support, Jackson is the focal point of the attack.
The freedom to roam across positions and Emery's guidance have given him breathing room away from the limelight and scrutiny that came with playing for Chelsea. Villa struggled at the start of the season and failed to score until September 8, although Jackson's performances were positive. In the same game that John McGinn broke that deadlock, a 3-2 win against Club Brugge, Jackson netted his first for the club. Neither he nor the team have looked back since.
Options and support around him have helped. In Johan Manzambi, Emi Buendia, McGinn, Senegal team-mate Ibrahim Mbaye and others, Jackson has both passers and receivers should he choose to venture forward or drift out wide.
The numbers
- Big chances at Chelsea: 18 converted from 61 (29 per cent) across two seasons
- Big chances at Villa: Three converted from five (60 per cent) so far
- Goals vs xG: Four Premier League goals from 1.98 xG; only Erling Haaland (nine goals from 6xG) is overperforming by a greater margin
- Conversion rate: 21 per cent in 2026/27, up from 13.2 per cent in his final Chelsea season
- Historical high: 29.3 per cent in 2022/23, his last season with Emery before the manager left for Villa
- Shot volume: Around three per game, the same as at Chelsea
- Dribbles completed: 2.5 per game, first among centre-forwards in the league
- Runs ahead of the ball: 7.7 per game, also first among centre-forwards
- Recent form: Seven goals in his last nine appearances across all competitions
What was said
"Unai taught me everything about football."
"When I was from Senegal, I knew how to play but I did not understand how to run on the pitch. I was just running like crazy, taking the ball and just dribbling, making my own stuff. [Emery] changed all that and made me into a different kind of player."
"Before, I was not playing like this, I was more of a kid. He trained me for six months and he left. He helped me a lot in the gym and tried to help me with my body."
"All of them (coaches) are amazing, but Unai is a big key to my football now."
"We worked during the one year on his skill, he improved his understanding better. Now he could exploit his potential."
"I will bring my spirit. Fighting for the badge, fighting for the coach, as I always do."
Jackson's words reveal a player who credits Emery with transforming his movement and understanding of the game. The six months they spent together at Villarreal laid the foundation, and the connection stretches back to that time — a bridge that was never burned.
Emery's response when Jackson signed shows a manager confident he could unlock more. The early numbers suggest that confidence was justified, with Jackson now ranking first among centre-forwards for dribbles completed and runs ahead of the ball per game.
Deal details
Jackson moved to Aston Villa from Chelsea in a deal that could reach a club-record £65m. Atletico Madrid were also interested in signing him in the summer but were unable to meet the financial demands of a potential deal. Chelsea sanctioned his exit after the arrivals of Joao Pedro and Liam Delap, who has since left to join Nottingham Forest, created a surplus of strikers. The loan move to Bayern Munich was a similar story: newly crowned Ballon d'Or winner Harry Kane was always going to claim that spot, and the arrivals of Danny Welbeck and Emanuel Emegha left little room for a resurgence in blue.
Injury and availability
Chelsea's Joao Pedro was sidelined with an injury and Chelsea played 78 minutes without a recognised striker in their dismal loss to Tottenham. By the time that game kicked off, Jackson had already scored twice to beat Manchester City.
Why Emery trusts Jackson to lead the line
Nicolas Jackson is not just recapturing his finest form; he is reaching new levels in his second stint with Unai Emery. The tactical keys are clear: Jackson takes the same amount of shots as before, around three a game, but his conversion rate has skyrocketed. The freedom Emery grants him to roam across positions, combined with the service from Johan Manzambi, Emi Buendia, John McGinn and Ibrahim Mbaye, has made him the focal point of the attack.
The departure of Ollie Watkins, the club's all-time leading goalscorer in the Premier League, left big shoes to fill, but Jackson is already proving he can rise to the challenge. His movement and growth continue to be fine-tuned by the Villa boss, and the numbers underline his importance: first among centre-forwards for dribbles completed and runs ahead of the ball per game.
Against Fulham, expect Jackson to drift wide and attack the space between full-back and centre-back. Emery's demands are high, but Jackson has a proven track record of meeting them. The stage is set for him to continue his remarkable start in claret and blue.
Talking points
- Jackson's conversion rate has doubled, but is five big chances enough to call it a permanent improvement? The sample size caveat remains.
- Chelsea's striker crisis — playing 78 minutes without a recognised striker against Tottenham — makes the £65m sale look questionable.
- Atletico Madrid's inability to meet the financial demands allowed Villa to swoop. Was that a lucky break or smart negotiation?
- Jackson's dribbling and runs ahead of the ball lead the league among centre-forwards, but can he sustain it as the fixtures pile up?
What happens next
Jackson faces another chance to impress when Aston Villa host Fulham on Saturday at 8pm, live on Sky Sports. With seven goals in his last nine appearances, he will look to continue his fine form and deepen Chelsea's regret.
Frequently asked questions
How many goals has Nicolas Jackson scored for Aston Villa?
He has scored four Premier League goals from an expected goals value of 1.98, and seven goals in his last nine appearances across all competitions.
What is Nicolas Jackson's conversion rate at Aston Villa?
He has converted 60 per cent of his big chances (three of five) and has a conversion rate of 21 per cent in 2026/27, up from 13.2 per cent in his final Chelsea season.
When does Aston Villa play Fulham and what time is kick-off?
Aston Villa host Fulham on Saturday at 8pm, live on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League.
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