Arsenal’s xG Dominance: Why the Title Was No Fluke

The 2025-26 Premier League season saw Arsenal finally end their 22-year wait for the title. But the standard table only tells part of the story. Expected goals (xG) tables reveal a deeper truth: the Gunners were the league’s most consistent attacking and defensive force.

Arsenal’s total xG of 82.4 was the highest in the division, four clear of Manchester City. Their xG against of 32.1 was the best, highlighting a defence that limited high-quality chances. This double dominance is rare; only Liverpool in 2019-20 achieved a similar margin.

Set-Piece Goals: The Secret Weapon Behind the Title

Arsenal scored a league-high 18 set-piece goals in 2025-26, a dramatic increase from 12 the previous season. This pivot to dead-ball efficiency came via improved delivery from Declan Rice and clever movement from Gabriel and Saliba. In tight matches against Brighton (1-0) and Manchester United (2-0), set pieces unlocked stubborn defences.

At the other end, Arsenal conceded just one set-piece goal all season — the fewest in the top flight. This net gain of +17 goals from set pieces gave them a massive edge over rivals. Manchester City, by contrast, scored only nine set-piece goals and conceded five.

Long Shots: A Calculated Reduction

Despite their attacking prowess, Arsenal attempted the fewest long shots in the league — 142, compared to 195 for City. This discipline reflects Arteta’s philosophy: only take shots with a high probability of scoring. Their conversion rate on long shots was 11.2%, second only to Tottenham’s 12.5%, but they simply didn’t waste possessions.

This contrasts sharply with 2021-22, when Arsenal took 178 long shots and scored just six times. The 2025-26 approach improved their overall shot efficiency by 34%. Data from Understat shows Arsenal’s shots on target percentage was 38%, best in the Premier League.

What These Tables Mean for FPL Managers & Title Race History

  • Arsenal’s xG overperformance was just +3.2, indicating sustainable form — unlike Leicester’s 2015-16 title where xG predicted regression. This title is built on solid foundations.
  • Fantasy Premier League: Bukayo Saka (22 goals, 14 assists, 55% ownership) and Martin Ødegaard (14 goals, 18 assists) were top-five scorers. Their underlying stats suggest similar output next season. For 2026-27, target Arsenal defenders: Saliba and Gabriel combined for six goals and 18 clean sheets.
  • Historical precedent: Only Manchester City in 2017-18 and 2018-19 have led both xG for and against across a season. Arsenal join elite company. Their +50.3 xG differential is the third-best in Premier League history.

2026-27 Title Defence: Can Arsenal Repeat?

The alternative table data signals that Arsenal’s title is no fluke. With a young core and tactical flexibility, they start next season as favourites. Key tests: managing Champions League fatigue and replacing potential departures (Thomas Partey’s contract ends 2027). If they maintain their set-piece efficiency and xG supremacy, another title is within reach. Expect City to invest heavily to close the gap, but Arsenal’s data-driven model gives them a clear edge.

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