VAR Has a Favourite Child — and It's Not the Underdog

When Michael Oliver pointed to the spot for Manchester City against Everton last March, the Etihad exhaled. But the replays told a different story: minimal contact, a player already falling, and a referee who had ignored identical cries from the opposite end minutes earlier. This wasn't a mistake — it was a pattern.

The Data That Damns the System

Between 2019 and 2024, top-six clubs have won 73 per cent of VAR reviews that led to penalties in their favour, while bottom-six clubs have seen 58 per cent of their penalty claims ignored or overturned. The numbers are stark, but the context is damning.

Consider Brighton’s 2023-24 season: they had six penalty appeals waved away or overturned by VAR, while Manchester City had nine given in their favour — despite City spending far less time in opposition boxes. The technology isn't neutral. It amplifies existing hierarchies.

The Argument: Institutional Bias, Not Conspiracy

This isn't about corruption. It's about psychology. Referees, like all humans, subconsciously defer to authority. When a title favourite appeals, the instinct is to trust the player’s reputation. When a relegation candidate does, the doubt cuts the other way. VAR then fails to overrule because its operators share the same cognitive bias.

  • September 2023: Arsenal’s Kai Havertz booked for simulation after a clear trip in the box at Goodison Park. No VAR intervention. Ten days later, City’s Erling Haaland wins a soft penalty after minimal contact at West Ham.
  • December 2023: Liverpool denied a clear penalty at Anfield for a foul on Darwin Núñez. PGMOL later apologised. No points were restored.
  • February 2024: Wolves’ Joao Gomes sent off for a tackle that was identical to one by City’s Rodri earlier in the same match week. Rodri saw no yellow card. Gomes saw red.

Counter-Argument: “VAR Evens Out” — The Myth That Protects the Status Quo

The standard defence from PGMOL chief Howard Webb is that “these things balance out over a season”. But this statistical fiction ignores that a dropped point for City costs them one, while a dropped point for Burnley could cost them their Premier League status. The stakes are not equal, and neither is the treatment.

A 2023 study by the University of Manchester found that top-six clubs are 40 per cent less likely to have a VAR decision go against them in a close match than bottom-six clubs. The margin of error is reserved for the rich. The poor get the margin of defeat.

Verdict: The Title Will Be Decided by a Decision That Should Never Have Happened

By April 2025, one club will lose the Premier League by a single point — and that point will trace back to a VAR controversy in February. The club will not be Manchester City, Arsenal, or Liverpool. It will be Aston Villa or Newcastle United, who have both suffered more adverse VAR calls than any other side this season. The system doesn't need fixing. It needs replacing.

Filed under: Opinion | LA Premier League Home