Man Utd on brink of worst start in 40 years as Spurs visit Old Trafford

Manchester United will record their worst start to a league season in 40 years if they fail to beat Tottenham at Old Trafford on Saturday (5.30pm, live on Sky Sports). The market makes United 4/6 favourites, but Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, believes Spurs are the value play.

  • Fixture: Manchester United vs Tottenham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
  • At stake: United defeat would equal their worst league start for 40 years
  • Market odds: Man Utd 4/6, Spurs double chance 6/5 with Sky Bet
  • Score prediction: 1-2 to Tottenham
  • Other best bets: 0-0 at half-time in Arsenal vs Leeds (9/4); Leif Davis to score or assist (11/4)
  • Stats: United outrun by 6.5km at Fulham; rank bottom for high-speed runs

Confused? Here's the full weekend preview

Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight across the Premier League weekend. This international break, with nations playing up to four matches rather than the usual two, could have a huge effect on the Premier League return. Fatigue, injuries, travel and late returns are expected to influence matters more than the betting markets portray.

Arsenal vs Leeds United, Saturday 12.30pm

Three weeks is a long time in football. The key is that the first half is the period most vulnerable to disruption after this break. When looking across the last five seasons in the Championship and Premier League in the matchday after the first international break, first-half goals per game go down by 0.3 of a goal. First-half goal averages have come in at 1.22 across that period but fall to 0.92 in the first matchday after the first international break.

The numbers become even more interesting when just assessing the Premier League during that period, where the average is just 0.82 goals per first half. During that period the chances of a half-time 0-0 have increased too, with 50 per cent of the matches in that five-year sample size seeing no goals scored before the break. That is a huge spike on the long-term numbers across five years of Premier League games which tell us that the normal average strike-rate for a 0-0 at half-time is just 27 per cent.

Remarkably, Leeds have only conceded two first-half goals in their last 20 matches across all competitions with 11 of those games seeing a 0-0 come in at the break. It's a big runner here at 9/4 with Sky Bet. SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: 0-0 at half-time (9/4 with Sky Bet).

Aston Villa vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm

The Premier League has become such a congested – and at times bonkers – league that we've reached the stage where Brentford are almost being priced as favourites to beat Aston Villa at Villa Park. I get the love for Brentford – but ranking them above an Unai Emery side on home soil feels like a dangerous game to play.

The market still looks cold on Villa, but I think their rebuild is quietly coming together. Johan Manzambi, Zion Suzuki and Nicolas Jackson all shone in the win at Tottenham and, despite so many new faces, there was an encouraging cohesion to Villa's performance. That shouldn't necessarily come as a surprise.

These players are working under a manager who knows exactly what he is doing, especially after an international break where Emery is unbeaten across his last 10 matches with Villa, winning six of them. With home advantage, a manager I trust implicitly and a price of 13/8 with Sky Bet, I'm happy to take on the market forces when it comes to Brentford. Home win. SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1.

Chelsea vs Bournemouth, Saturday 3pm

The loss of Alex Scott will make Bournemouth a less effective team – our job is to work out whether the market has reacted sufficiently enough to the news of his unavailability for six weeks with a tendon issue. The Cherries have played four times without Scott in the Premier League since the start of last season and failed to win all four, including a disappointing 1-1 draw with Burnley at home – a small sample size of course but certainly relevant.

Roughly 350,000 Super 6 entrants are backing a 2-1 win to The Blues at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea are 7/10 with Sky Bet for victory which is bordering on tempting but the best way in is to add goals to the mix. All five of Chelsea's games have gone over 2.5 goals with the average coming in at 4.4 per game whilst both teams to score has landed in 13 of Bournemouth's last 17 away games. Goals look guaranteed, so combining Chelsea to win, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at 6/4 with Sky Bet rates as a savvy way to attack this game. SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1.

Ipswich Town vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm

Time to roll the Leif Davis dice again whilst the prices remain inflated. Davis is playing as an aggressive left-back in Gary O'Neil's 4-2-3-1 and has become one of Ipswich's principal attacking outlets. His attacking position means he's effectively functioning as another winger when Ipswich have sustained possession. This role is bringing the best out of Davis, who in his last four starts has had six shots, three of those hitting the target and scoring twice. Ipswich should find space to work with in this winnable fixture so the 11/4 on Davis to score or assist makes significant appeal. SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS BEST BET: Leif Davis to score or assist (11/4 with Sky Bet).

Sunderland vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm

The betting markets love Brighton, perhaps too much at times. That could be the case here where the injury news surrounding Sunderland does have a hint of overreaction to it when assessing the price on a home win at 2/1 with Sky Bet. Following a strong display against Arsenal before the international break, roughly 65 per cent of Super 6 players are backing Brighton to pick up another win away against Sunderland.

Yes, Brian Brobbey and Dan Ballard are big players for the Black Cats but this team is built more on the system and functionality rather than any one individual. Sunderland aren't some hopelessly open newly-promoted side waiting to be demolished. Their underlying profile is very strong at the Stadium of Light. Since promotion, they have lost just five times in 24 home matches and have conceded less than a goal per game in that sample size. To get them on the draw no bet line at 11/10 with Sky Bet makes lots of sense to back. SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1.

Manchester United vs Tottenham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports

In a league where winning duels, playing with intensity and where physicality provides the bedrock for winning games, Manchester United's running stats this season are becoming an issue for them and their prospects of winning games. In their last game at Fulham, United were outrun by a total of 6.5km – this is the second most a team has been outrun by an opponent in a Premier League match this season. This season United currently rank in the bottom five for distance covered, in the bottom four for sprints and rank bottom for high-speed runs. They look a team devoid of legs.

Should United fail to win here it would be their worst start to a league season for 40 years – yet the market is expecting a home success with 4/6 on offer with Sky Bet. As is always the case with Manchester United in the betting markets, the badge is completely skewing what their true price is. They are woefully short here. That makes Spurs a play on the double chance at 6/5 with Sky Bet. SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2.

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Oliver Glasner faces Crystal Palace for the first time since leaving at the end of last season and this fixture is becoming a little bit more Vindaloo than Korma on the spice chart based on recent meetings. Not only have Forest pinched Palace's greatest ever manager, this is a growing rivalry following Forest replacing Palace in the Europa League due to multi-club ownership rules.

Although goals have been in short supply in recent meetings – all four have gone under 2.5 goals – the cards have been flowing with an average of seven cards shown per game and all five going over the 4.5 cards line. The market is sleeping on this.

Why the numbers point to a slow start at Arsenal and a Spurs upset

The standout trend this weekend is the first-half goal drought after an international break. The data shows a 0.3 drop in first-half goals per game across the Championship and Premier League in the matchday after the first international break, with the Premier League average falling to just 0.82 goals per first half. With Leeds having conceded only two first-half goals in their last 20 matches, the 0-0 at half-time in Arsenal vs Leeds looks generously priced at 9/4.

At Old Trafford, the running stats paint a grim picture for Manchester United. Being outrun by 6.5km at Fulham is the second most a team has been outrun by an opponent this season, and sitting in the bottom five for distance covered, bottom four for sprints and bottom for high-speed runs suggests a side lacking the physicality to dominate. Spurs, despite their own winless start, are a value play on the double chance at 6/5.

The Chelsea vs Bournemouth game looks like a goals fest. All five of Chelsea's games have gone over 2.5 goals, averaging 4.4 per game, while both teams to score has landed in 13 of Bournemouth's last 17 away games. The 6/4 on Chelsea win, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is the savvy combination. Elsewhere, Leif Davis's attacking role for Ipswich makes the 11/4 on him to score or assist appealing, and Sunderland's strong home record makes the 11/10 draw no bet line against Brighton worth backing.

Talking points

  • Should Manchester United really be 4/6 favourites at home when they are bottom for high-speed runs and were outrun by 6.5km at Fulham?
  • Is the market overreacting to Sunderland's injuries? They have lost just five of 24 home matches since promotion and look solid at 11/10 draw no bet.
  • Can Leeds really keep another first-half clean sheet at Arsenal? They have conceded just two first-half goals in their last 20 games.
  • Is Leif Davis the most underrated attacking full-back in the league? His last four starts have produced six shots, three on target and two goals.

What happens next

All eyes will be on Old Trafford on Saturday evening. If United fail to beat Spurs, they will equal their worst league start in 40 years, a milestone that will pile pressure on the manager and squad. Spurs, meanwhile, will hope to build on a morale-boosting result. The weekend's action also includes Arsenal vs Leeds, Chelsea vs Bournemouth, Aston Villa vs Brentford, Ipswich vs Fulham and Sunderland vs Brighton, with Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest on Sunday. Jones Knows' best bets are already placed with Sky Bet.

Frequently asked questions

What time is Manchester United vs Tottenham?

Kick-off is at 5.30pm on Saturday and the match is live on Sky Sports.

Will Manchester United have their worst league start in 40 years if they lose to Tottenham?

Yes, according to Lewis Jones, should United fail to win it would be their worst start to a league season for 40 years.

What is Jones Knows' best bet for Arsenal vs Leeds?

His best bet is 0-0 at half-time at 9/4 with Sky Bet, based on Leeds' record of conceding just two first-half goals in their last 20 matches.

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