Brentford's set-piece brilliance is a symptom of a deeper systemic failure

Brentford are the Premier League's deadliest side from dead balls, but that statistical outlier conceals a rotting core. The Bees' open-play numbers are relegation-level, not mid-table. You cannot build a sustainable Premier League identity on corners and free-kicks alone.

The numbers tell a damning story

Brentford scored 19 set-piece goals in 2025/26, the most in the division. Yet from open play they managed only 28, ranking 15th. Their expected goals from open play per 90 (0.91) was 17th, behind Luton's relegated side from the season prior. No team has ever survived back-to-back seasons with such a disparity.

History is a grave reminder: in 2023/24, Sheffield United also topped set-piece charts but fell apart when opponents wised up. By March, teams sat deep, conceded corners, and snuffed out Brentford's primary route. The Bees lost five of their last seven.

The tactical skeleton beneath the set-piece suit

Thomas Frank's system relies on early crosses into Ivan Toney and Yoane Wissa, but opposing full-backs now double up and force play wide into safe areas. The midfield trio of Mathias Jensen, Vitaly Janelt, and Christian Nørgaard lacks progressive passing; Jensen's pass completion into the final third is 63%, lowest among comparable midfielders.

  • Brentford rank 19th for through balls per 90 (0.8), showing no ability to break lines centrally.
  • They attempt the fewest dribbles per 90 (7.1) in the league. Opponents know they won't carry the ball through midfield.
  • Defensively, they concede 2.1 goals per 90 from open play when their high press is bypassed — fourth-worst in the division.

But set pieces alone can't keep you up — the counter-argument falls flat

Some argue that set-piece prowess is a valid specialisation, like Burnley's reliance on crosses under Dyche. Yet Dyche's Burnley finished 17th in 2021/22 when their set-piece output dipped. Brentford's xG from open play is lower than any Burnley side since 2016. Opponents now actively study Brentford's set-piece patterns; it is only a matter of time before they are neutralised.

Moreover, Frank's refusal to adapt his pressing triggers — always engaging high, regardless of opponent — leaves them exposed. Manchester United exploited this in April, bypassing the press with three vertical passes and scoring twice. Brighton's De Zerbi did the same in March. The pattern is clear.

Brentford will finish 16th unless they reinvent their open-play approach by Christmas

By January 2027, if Brentford have not improved their open-play expected goals above 1.0 per 90, they will be in a relegation battle. The set-piece well will run dry. My forecast: Frank will abandon his high press by Gameweek 20 and adopt a mid-block, but it will be too late. Brentford will be fighting for survival on the final day — and losing to a side that actually constructs attacks.

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